50 replies to this topic

[dharma]

trading is like flying a plane. 90%of the time its smooth skies, but 10%of the tme its bumpy and the feeling fo fear reigns

gold had a pop this am , which was quickly erased

sentiment

 HGNSI rose 27 points to -3% yesterday 

MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus was unchanged today at 32% 

DSI fell 3 points to 19%.

nothing to see here, move along

volume has been decreasing on this decline.

my guess nothing much happens until after the fed on the 16th 4.32 yrs=17th   and bradley on the 18th

dharma

[gannman]

im thinking we get gld to move up to about 107 and for gdx and gdxj to break above their 50 dma

then gld pulls back for one final low to try and retest the low of 12/2 and gdx and gdxj hold above their

50dma one possible scenario

[tria]

My thinking is as much stagnant as some mkts are.

Gold and SPX may trade within potential triangles untill next week.

A rather small, premature and highly hypothetical formation, admittedly in Gold's case.

The GDX giving me/us another chance for a new low entry point, has not increased imo.

Just in case the opportunity is offered however, was the reason that I bought back only NUGT the other day, i.e to cover that chance and buy JNUG at an even better price.

With so much repetitive Fed talk, I refuse to conclude what a possible Fed surprise may be.

Bottom line, the waiting continues, I cannot afford not to be long, but don't like an 'all in' position neither at this juncture.

My only assumption is that any price weakness next week should be short lived, in Gold's case.

 

tria=τρία=3

 

[SemiBizz]

Yep, all about being patient and letting the odds line up in your favor, having the discipline not to take a halfass return and wait for it all to line up.

 

So what do you think of this outlook?

 

EUR$ (rounded, good enough for fibonacci work)

 

A 1.15

 

B 1.05

 

C 1.10

 

D 1.00

[dharma]

tria here is what the banksters are thinking   "The upcoming FOMC meeting has been well flagged....Extreme short positioning suggests that the risk of a more dramatic short-covering rally is currently elevated, particularly if a rate hike is accompanied by dovish rhetoric." - UBS Bank, Dec 9, 2015.

now it has been all over the press etc, that rate hikes are bearish for gold , depending on the situation they have been either way.  but the specs have increased their shorts, particularly the small specs.   bulls begin w/short covering

the dollar/yen chart has a declining bullish wedge -an eye there the same happened w/abenomics their qe went to buy bonds and the banks hoarded the cash, having a deflationary effect  if that reverses as raising rates here, the hope is it will create a little inflation. if that happens here then its game on. slowly slowly.  how can one create a little inflation?

gold reserves increased in china for the 5th straight consecutive month they bought 670000troy ounces or 20.84 metric tons to 1743.85 tons this steady monthly buying absorbs mine supply of fiz

taking time, but markets take time.

patience grasshopper

dharma

if you dont want to wait, go over to kwn, they will have the parabola any minute

[johngeorge]

From Bob Hoye Dec 6, 2015 LINK

[tria]

Yep, all about being patient and letting the odds line up in your favor, having the discipline not to take a halfass return and wait for it all to line up.

 

So what do you think of this outlook?

 

EUR$ (rounded, good enough for fibonacci work)

 

A 1.15

 

B 1.05

 

C 1.10

 

D 1.00

 

A - better than even chance very late Dec or early Jan, Book squaring and thin volume year end forex mkts.

 

B - better than even chance next year.

 

C - target was licked/hit earlier today (1.10214).

 

D - wishful thinking, go ahead, make my day...  type of call.

Edited by tria, 10 December 2015 - 01:33 PM.

[SemiBizz]

 

Yep, all about being patient and letting the odds line up in your favor, having the discipline not to take a halfass return and wait for it all to line up.

 

So what do you think of this outlook?

 

EUR$ (rounded, good enough for fibonacci work)

 

A 1.15

 

B 1.05

 

C 1.10

 

D 1.00

 

 

This what I have in mind...

 

A - 10/15/15

 

B - Last Week

 

C - target was licked/hit earlier today (1.10214).

 

D - January 2016

 

 

Couple of things now, note it was 8 weeks from A to B...

 

And just few days to make the C point (on lighter volume thrust)

 

The short amount of time and the light volume to the .50R target reinforce the outlook of an ABC Down Structure per countertrend behavioral characteristics.

 

We should see a test of the last low (B point at 1.05)now shortly... probably after the F'eds.

 

And the 1.00 parity depends on the volume and momentum pushing through the B point 1.05.

Edited by SemiBizz, 10 December 2015 - 01:47 PM.

[tria]

This what came to my mind apart from the fact that you did say 'outcome' whilst A and B were past history.

 

If any dollar holders dudes, no ofence dudes, think they can go skiing on Christmas or on New Year's Eve in an  Austrian, Swiss or in a French picturesque village and exchange their $ IOYs or charge their $ plastics with euros at any rate near 1.05 or USD/CHF near 1.03, well I have news for them. It won't happen or at least

ist unwahrscheinlich/c'est peu probable,  Better try skiing in the Andes or Cuba or Venezuela.

Freedom fighters there are even more polite than the infidel euroland terroristas BTW...

 

 

 

Yep, all about being patient and letting the odds line up in your favor, having the discipline not to take a halfass return and wait for it all to line up.

 

So what do you think of this outlook?

 

EUR$ (rounded, good enough for fibonacci work)

 

A 1.15

 

B 1.05

 

C 1.10

 

D 1.00

 

 

This what I have in mind...

 

A - 10/15/15

 

B - Last Week

 

C - target was licked/hit earlier today (1.10214).

 

D - January 2016

 

 

Couple of things now, note it was 8 weeks from A to B...

 

And just few days to make the C point (on lighter volume thrust)

 

The short amount of time and the light volume to the .50R target reinforce the outlook of an ABC Down Structure per countertrend behavioral characteristics.

 

We should see a test of the last low (B point at 1.05)now shortly... probably after the F'eds.

 

And the 1.00 parity depends on the volume and momentum pushing through the B point 1.05.

 

Edited by tria, 10 December 2015 - 03:13 PM.

[senorBS]

Nice post, Decembers are often very tough and this one appears no different. One of the main things to focus on is the bullish COTs - especially if they remain this way, that may put a floor in the 1050-1060 gold area .Another thing is that I think the dollar index ended a big 5-wave decline at recent low so it may do a corrective rally into the Fed meeting, we see

 

Senor