50 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

gold looks to have bottomed at 1045

if so then this is wave 2 and wave 3 should see some fireworks 

that's the bull count, may fart around till Wednesday Fed meeting and then we get the answer later Wednesday and Thurs

 

BSing away

 

Senor

[dougie]

what do you have as the bear count?

[tria]

tria can you repost the gold chart w/the 25 and 30 week cycles

thanks

dharma

Chart from Norm, T-Theory forum

 

 

 

Last three charts by Eddie, T-Theory forum

[tria]

Putin, go ahead, make my day...

 

http://www.bbc.com/n...europe-35087050

 

[tria]

Very sorry to say but still, I just can't be very optimistic near term and probably will have to wait for a while.

The put/call ratio really bothers me a lot and despite Gold's backwardation widening a bit more recently which is bullish.

Precautionary hedging measures will be taken, probably as early as on Monday.

Hope I am dead wrong once again, however.

If Gold does not fall by much on Monday things could look better for the rest of the week.

Just my view,  DYODD pls.

 

-tria

[dharma]

1. "The growth in investment in China in the coming years has the potential to be the fastest acceleration in the history of capital markets." - PIMCO econs, Dec 14, 2015   if so alot of money from the far east will find its way into gold
2. silver making new lows this am not confirmed by gold or miners. silver working on an oscillator divergence
3. shorts pressing the issue
4.  keep in mind raising rates isnt gold bullish 100% of the time. sometimes it is bearish
5.  money velocity keeps sinking.  is raising rates an attempt by the fed to reverse money velocity?
6. its all a grand experiment this is not going to end well
7. just when you think its never going to go up it does.
8. dharma

[tria]

Took my short hedges off just now.

May reestablish them on Wednesday.

 

-tria

[dharma]

hyg is falling apart!  in the great depression, while the stock market was crashing , carnegie came out and said gentlement own bonds. well by 32 the bonds were also devasted. folks ran to the junk end for the yield , now its coming unglued

the question in my mind is -does she try to raise rates w/o significant open market bond sales, if so, it may be a 1st . the feds balance sheet has ballooned. the effects of this could be huge. for stocks, bonds, and real estate. the junk bond market is approaching free fall. pass the popcorn

commercials are net short the nasdaq mini while the specs are long 2:1 let the roasting begin

@past bottoms miners diverged from gold , not following gold to new lows.  yesterday, there was huge volume that came in the miners the last hour-it smelled of capitulation.  the sentiment readings are still lopsided bearish and the commercials are close to getting net long.

my hunch, and its just that, is she raises and the market rallies in the end. . if she punts on raising , then i think we rally.  

in the end we see. it could drag out till april/may

dharma

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[johngeorge]

From Stewart Thomson Dec 15, 2015:

Gold: J Day & Generational Lows

[dharma]

the stock market is giddy. the danger for the pm sector is if the broad market crashes, it will suck everything w/it(learned that one in 87,made a big impression). if it just declines, then its a different story   for all the reasons, i have stated here, i do think we are seeing bottoming action in the pm sector. there are a few rare events taking place. ie miners not onfirming new lows in the metal @1045 . silver making new lows unconfirmed by gold/miners. and the commercials getting close to even on their positions(last time cs were long 2001, which then produced 10yrs of bull).  w/all that said i am long, not fully long but enough to keep my attention.  on a rally and a higher low i will get more serious

tomorrow is 4.32 yrs since the hi =pi date   and the 18th is bradley

if the broad market crashes that will not bode well for the dollar.  we are @ a juncture here. tough to say. its why i dont have a large position.

whatever the fed does today, it will take some time to sort out.  one of the most vulnerable sectors are the junk bonds(hyg) and then the stock market which has consequences=watch the dollar. so, just when things look better for the pms,  there are other danger signs. the mutual fund managers are @ extremely low levels of cash, which =they will be selling into a decline to raise cash

dharma

see you after the fed

Edited by dharma, 16 December 2015 - 11:03 AM.