3 replies to this topic

[gannman]

the kbe imo is going to do a repeat of its feb 2007 to mar 2009 drop. so this decline is going to be around for a while the big difference 

 

this time is that the bkx and the general market are in sync . in 2007 the banks topped in feb the market in october. 

 

thats my take fwiw we need 5 waves down in the kbe to complete this decline and we are a long way away from that 

 

 

[SilentOne]

I'm expecting a panic in the financials to end this correction (a reverse of 2008 where they lead the downside). We should be heading into major cycle lows in the first quarter of 2016. You are unlikely to have a repeat of 2008 with such a right translated cycle off the 2009 lows. Just not very likely. BUT, targets need to be hit. This will be nothing like 2008. If markets stay very bearish beyond that (ie. this current correction expands in time and lasts beyond this year), we are in for a long bear market. Not what I am expecting right now. TWT.

The interesting thing is that no one cares about cycles until we roll into a bear market. That's when everyone starts to pay attention.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 09 January 2016 - 12:52 AM.

[gannman]

thanks john

[K Wave]

I'm expecting a panic in the financials to end this correction (a reverse of 2008 where they lead the downside). We should be heading into major cycle lows in the first quarter of 2016. You are unlikely to have a repeat of 2008 with such a right translated cycle off the 2009 lows. Just not very likely. BUT, targets need to be hit. This will be nothing like 2008. If markets stay very bearish beyond that (ie. this current correction expands in time and lasts beyond this year), we are in for a long bear market. Not what I am expecting right now. TWT.

The interesting thing is that no one cares about cycles until we roll into a bear market. That's when everyone starts to pay attention.

cheers,

john

I agree, this setup looks much more like 1937 than 2008 in the financials, as it looks like a rebound bounce that is now finished, rather than a bubble top...if so, we should make low in 2016 near the 2010-2012 basing area....