Here's the 60-min SPX through the lens of a longer-period momentum indicator, the CCI set to 233 bars. There is room for a pullback, but there is no imminent suggestion of a change in trend (upward) at this time:
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Posted 15 March 2016 - 08:21 AM
Worthy of note also is where the momentum high vs price high came in on the last ST peak. While we don't yet know whether the moment high is in yet for this move, just based on the last swing, there appears to be at least another 100 SPX points to the upside before a ST top is in... and as always, time will tell.
Posted 17 March 2016 - 08:13 AM
No real change in outlook here, I suspect we will continue moving upward in wave-i, (with a wave-i,ii, wave-i,ii) as an alt count. The confluences of TLs above seem to me to be ST price goals/targets, but as always, time will tell.
Posted 18 March 2016 - 07:14 AM
Nice work. Thanks for sharing.
Posted 18 March 2016 - 07:50 AM
Thank you for the kind words...
I wouldn't be surprised to see a pause in the upward price action in the coming week.
The 60-min may have reached the momentum peak for this swing, so a moment of rest may be in order before pressing upward further.
The fast momentum on the daily is pushing up towards the DTL as is the price action, so that would also add to the case for a bit of a pause.
The slow momentum on the daily is at the zero line, which often causes a pause, but not always.
And finally, the fast momentum on the weekly is likewise at the zero line, which often does cause a pause before continuing in its direction.
Have a great weekend all!
Posted 18 March 2016 - 03:11 PM
A bit disappointed that I didn't get to see the TL tag today, but it is what it is... just a small caveat for next week; Armstrong has a panic cycle for the Dow, and Achartist also mentioned a possible epicenter panic in his cycles. I do not know whether Armstrong sees a panic as either up or down, as it could be folks panicking to cover, and there are a few more TL confluences still above... time will tell. Have a great weekend all!
Posted 25 March 2016 - 03:06 PM
No real change in outlook here. The daily and weekly SPX were suggesting a pause in the upward move, we got the pause, and may see just a bit more correction early next week, the I suspect we continue the upward move from there.
Posted 27 March 2016 - 09:13 AM
Turning focus to the daily and weekly SPX, I see no reason from either set of charts, in both the fast and slow moment set-ups that price cannot resume upward from here, though the weekly SPX will eventually hit resistance in a few weeks as the indicator lines move up to the DTLs.
First the daily with the faster setting. I mentioned that it appears a pause in price was in order as the indicator DTL would likely cause resistance, as well as the price DTL, and that was the case.
The slower indicator also hit a DTL:
The weekly charts show room to the upside before resistance on the indicators is realized. The faster momentum setting is through zero, so the next resistance would be the DTL:
The chart of the slower moment indicator shows resistance above also at the DTL, so a pause in upward price movement would be expected there. I feel it's interesting to note that the topping process of momentum vs. price in the prior bull market top (3/2000) took about 4 1/2 years to complete and the moment high versus the price high was another 900 SPX points higher. If that pattern plays out here, we could see the SPX reach 2,750 by sometime in mid-2018, unless another momentum high is reached in the interim... just something to consider.
Posted 27 March 2016 - 11:56 AM
Let me add that I find it interesting that Armstong's Dow model was calling for a panic week last week, and in light of the event in Brussels and a panic cycle, a mere drop of 30 points in the SPX, combined with my indicators continue to point to bull market activity. His Dow model calls for a direction change this week, and with last week being down, I wonder whether we continue upward from here... my favored peak in terms of time is his next panic week out in May, with another possibility in July, but as always... time will tell.
Posted 30 March 2016 - 07:32 AM
I posted in recent days:
"No real change in outlook here. The daily and weekly SPX were suggesting a pause in the upward move, we got the pause, and may see just a bit more correction early next week, then I suspect we continue the upward move from there.
"Turning focus to the daily and weekly SPX, I see no reason from either set of charts, in both the fast and slow moment set-ups that price cannot resume upward from here, though the weekly SPX will eventually hit resistance in a few weeks as the indicator lines move up to the DTLs.
With a close above the price DTL, it appears the next pause will be up at the top DLT (fuchsia TL), in the SPX 2100 range, then the 2134.72 price. One tick over the current ATH, and it should be clear that the bull market is still in tact (the current market behavior and mood sure feels like the late 90s) and prices will continue higher, with imho, the next substantial target up at the SPX 2500 range... but as always... time will tell.
Edited by tsharp, 30 March 2016 - 07:33 AM.