2 replies to this topic

[Geomean]

Interesting point in time now.  If the twenty week cycle has been dominant, then the odds favor a turn down soon. 

 

The green vertical lines are the 21 TD cycle pinned to Mar 9, 2009, and have been hitting many peaks and troughs.  

 

You can see the prior Demark Sequential 13' sell signal's on the chart in red, his TD Combo 13 sell signals print in blue, Jason Perl's preferred settings for the TD Sequential in purple 13's,

 

The Combo hit today, Perl's version of the Sequential hit yesterday.  Today is the 100% fib TD time extension from the 5/20/15 top.

 

If the forty week cycle bottomed 2/11 (vs Aug 2015)  and is currently dominant, then we will probably get a peak @ 19750, but Elliotticans tell me that would make for a very short Cycle Wave 4 and not follow the Elliott's alternation guideline.    

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Good trading!

 

[Douglas]

Geomean, thanks for posting this interesting chart.  Years ago I did dabble with Demark's system, but I have never studied the reliability of Demark's sequence in detail.  What percentage of the time in your experience does a 13 count lead to an immediate reversal?  I gave up predictive systems for Lent years ago and went over to the dark side of trend following.  Despite my straying, I do still roll out my cracked crystal ball occasionally just for fun.  Thanks again.

 

P.S. I'm not an insomniac, I just had to get up really early to work on the boiler pressure before the heating system kicked on.  I turned on the computer just to see who won the NY primaries.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[Geomean]

Hi Douglas

Some years ago I posted a series of Dow charts here that had all the DeMark Sequential signals going back 90 years that enable folks to answer to analyze questions about the signals.  I haven't checked the archives for a link. 

 

One thing about the Sequential in my charts is that if it completes, it remains as a print for later review. All set up counts, including their true range completion boxes also remain on the charts.  However, countdown 13 counts that don't complete are removed.  

 

Jason Perl's book was not out yet, so those charts don't have counts using his settings (Perl does NOT ignore the first set up count and begin countdown anew if a new set up 9  completes before a countdown 13 completes)

 

BTW, there was a TDSEQ sell countdown 13 that completed on the ES hourly at the 8am CDT bar this am.