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Gold at the bottom of its recent range


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#31 SemiBizz

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Posted 26 May 2016 - 08:13 AM

So Far it's all going according to the script, it might change here, might not...

 

1231 here...

 

Today's Gold:

 

GOLD SLIDE CONTINUES - as gold fell on lighter volume on Wednesday, nevertheless we have a new low of 1217.70 on the contract, with a close at 1224 or down about 4 points on the day.  We'll see if this bounce continues or if we continue towards our 1211 target from here.  We did not see a recovery pattern in terms of the bounce off the low today on the hourly chart, so while this could certainly push a little higher here to 1231 or so, this still is not out of trouble yet.

 

Fundamentally I don't see a bright case for gold here, economic reports have been fully supportive of the stupid F'ed rate hike...

 

These light volume central banker rallies are almost always accompanied by a gold smackdown.

 

I dunno, it's all numbers to me anyway, I see 1211 short term.

 

 


Edited by SemiBizz, 26 May 2016 - 08:19 AM.

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#32 tria

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Posted 26 May 2016 - 02:15 PM

My heading should now be changed  "Gold near the low end of its present initial correction"

hopefully and not of its" recent range".

 

Anyway, Happy Memorial day to all the US TT members.  flowers.gif

 

 

 


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#33 SemiBizz

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Posted 27 May 2016 - 08:56 AM

Accelerating Volume off the top...

 

1211.

 

Overnight low on the contract... eggszacktly .... 1211.000000

 

Something I'm doing works...

 

yes.gif


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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#34 tria

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Posted 29 May 2016 - 08:27 PM

 

Accelerating Volume off the top...

 

1211.

 

Overnight low on the contract... eggszacktly .... 1211.000000

 

Something I'm doing works...

 

yes.gif

 

 

Indeed somethimg you are doing works...Semi.


In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#35 tria

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Posted 29 May 2016 - 08:43 PM

Hadik as I understand has 1,190 as a target in this first leg of the correction.

 

Too late for one to sell and the time to buy more should be very near.

The COT report was more friendly  as expected and it will be even better this week

as the decrease in the futures OI indicate, even more stop loss selling by the hedgies

and more short covering by the commercials.


In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#36 tria

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Posted 30 May 2016 - 08:13 AM

Once this correction is complete and this should be real soon, look for a bounce into mid June

says Hadik.

http://seekingalpha....t-podcast?ifp=0

 

excerpts:

 

Here's what he had to say on Friday's podcast:

"Gold and silver have understandably and predictably pulled back... and both of them triggered some short-term sell signals in the first day of May and even then I've gone on record saying that I thought gold would drop from that $1,306 level down to $1,190 and, depending on how that drop unfolded, it could even make it down to some even lower levels before a secondary bottom comes into play."

 

Volatility for Next Few Months

"I think there will be a lot of volatility based on some of the other intermediate cycles I'm watching. That doesn't preclude one or more of the metals from spiking to new highs within that consolidation phase but I would not expect that type of spike to have much follow-through to the upside. I'm actually looking at a critical time in mid-June once this correction is complete where I think you'll see a bounce into that time frame but that does not necessarily mean it's going to be new highs. It could be a lower high in gold and silver-perhaps a b-wave type of peak before another selloff but that really will be determined by the action of the next couple weeks in gold and silver but, yes, I do think we are going to see increasing volatility and a bit more of a trading range for a few more months."

 

Better Buying Opportunity in Q3

"I'm waiting for a new higher low and a new set of buy signals to take hold before getting back on the bullish bandwagon with as much conviction as I had earlier this year. So I think there is going to be another opportunity with another key time frame out in the third quarter... and that may be the time when we see a bottom and the onset of the next leg up."

 

Seismic Shift

"I think part of this pullback in gold is due to a strengthening dollar. They both turned in early May; the dollar started showing new strength and it is slowly ticking off some of the technical confirmation points that I need to see to confirm to me that this is a new impulse wave starting... But, within a bigger context, my work has been showing and I've been saying that I thought the dollar's advance and the dollar's strength would be culminating in 2016, maybe there's a little carryover into 2017, but there's a strong argument that a peak could be seen later in 2016... but it also plays perfectly with the 40-year cycle that we've discussed in previous interviews where all of them are showing this 2016-2017 time frame to be a major transition phase for the dollar where I contend we are going to see a seismic shift start to really take hold and then when dollar cycles start to peak and turn down that will also be one of those things that really favors gold in 2017..."


Edited by tria, 30 May 2016 - 08:20 AM.

In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#37 relax

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Posted 30 May 2016 - 08:37 AM

all those words....very little causation....what is the trend and how do you define it....dollar...interest rate...ma's....cot...oi...mood....patterns...basically who cares...as long as one is able to take some trades and win...

 

tria, no need for you to look at some guy called hadik ;-) i prefer your stuff, few words and clear cut trades...though of course we call all improve at any point in time...

 

pattern wise this looks like october 2012, same preceding up move, so basically i would say that to avoid that pattern, first step would be to hold above the june low in july...beats me how anybody here can predict whether we do that and go above 1305 or do october 2012....guess that't why i come here and listen to Tria...

 

keep us updated 3 ;-)



#38 blackcloud

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Posted 30 May 2016 - 09:16 AM

Anyone think this last 2 to 3 months looks like the August to November 2015 period.  I see some indicators that are set up about the same as Nov. 2015, right before the final 3 or so point plunge in GLD.  I think if GLD doesn't bounce from the area it is at right now, we will see that final down move.



#39 tria

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Posted 31 May 2016 - 02:41 AM

Relax,

I quoted Hadik since what he sees for the next few months/years is about similar to what I expect to see.

Hadik however forsaw the depth of this Gold correction whilst I did not.

 

all those words....very little causation....what is the trend and how do you define it....dollar...interest rate...ma's....cot...oi...mood....patterns...basically who cares...as long as one is able to take some trades and win...

 

tria, no need for you to look at some guy called hadik ;-) i prefer your stuff, few words and clear cut trades...though of course we call all improve at any point in time...

 

pattern wise this looks like october 2012, same preceding up move, so basically i would say that to avoid that pattern, first step would be to hold above the june low in july...beats me how anybody here can predict whether we do that and go above 1305 or do october 2012....guess that't why i come here and listen to Tria...

 

keep us updated 3 ;-)

 


In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky


#40 tria

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Posted 31 May 2016 - 02:55 AM

Too much talk about Armstrong's $1,000 Gold and almost no talk at all of his $5,000 call in a few years.

 

Just like with Crude at $26.00 and people were talking about a further drop to $24.00 which did not come.


In the world of 0 and 1: "austerity" is the right thing to SAY; "spent more, print more" is the right thing to DO.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
~ Wayne Gretzky