97 replies to this topic

[johngeorge]

US Dollar shows strength, but, not against the Yen.

 

Chart courtesy of Stewart Thomson July 5, 2016

[johngeorge]

Gold moving higher tonight and is now at 1368, however, when cometh the smacketh down?

[dharma]

thats the thing  when is the smackdown, the bull climbs a wall of worry . one looks at maund pointing to the commercial short position. and for weeks now they have been building their short position . while gold screams higher.  the parameters of what is 'a large position ' change in a bull market.  then there are the armstrongites and his wanna bes pointing to the dollar and saying the buck is gonna run its going to the moon.  and yet gold is at new 2year highs today . the spdr gold fund now holds 982 tons up from 953  that is a substantial build.   i have never felt comfortable w/the fund,it is bankster run and operated.  we are in a more speculative phase right here, which brings us closer and closer to the end of this leg. but it could last into august.  sure there will be corrections its what markets do, thinking otherwise will get one in trouble.  

on the weekly gold chart there is an inverse  h&s pattern .  we just took out the neckline. 

i am going through the charts of silver explorers.   the silver majors just like the gold majors will have to replenish their supplies. it is now profitable for them to mine silver and make $$ all the cost cutting done over the 11-15  period has put many miners in a stronger position i have been building a position in this one. 

volatility continues to increase.  livermore has it right its the sitting . the more ins and outs one does. the more mistakes are made. 

i believe we are one year away from  the gold bull market era , where it becomes obvious that the fed is trapped and china/india buyers are evident. i wonder how the indians feel about modi/jaitley  firing raj? by the way the monsoons are normal and happening in india

dharma

[goldfungus]

thats the thing  when is the smackdown, the bull climbs a wall of worry . one looks at maund pointing to the commercial short position. and for weeks now they have been building their short position . while gold screams higher.  the parameters of what is 'a large position ' change in a bull market.  then there are the armstrongites and his wanna bes pointing to the dollar and saying the buck is gonna run its going to the moon.  and yet gold is at new 2year highs today . the spdr gold fund now holds 982 tons up from 953  that is a substantial build.   i have never felt comfortable w/the fund,it is bankster run and operated.  we are in a more speculative phase right here, which brings us closer and closer to the end of this leg. but it could last into august.  sure there will be corrections its what markets do, thinking otherwise will get one in trouble.  

on the weekly gold chart there is an inverse  h&s pattern .  we just took out the neckline. 

i am going through the charts of silver explorers.   the silver majors just like the gold majors will have to replenish their supplies. it is now profitable for them to mine silver and make $$ all the cost cutting done over the 11-15  period has put many miners in a stronger position i have been building a position in this one. 

volatility continues to increase.  livermore has it right its the sitting . the more ins and outs one does. the more mistakes are made. 

i believe we are one year away from  the gold bull market era , where it becomes obvious that the fed is trapped and china/india buyers are evident. i wonder how the indians feel about modi/jaitley  firing raj? by the way the monsoons are normal and happening in india

dharma

"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon." Yep.

[dharma]

a word on chpgf

this is a fully funded company. they have no intention of building out the mine. their intention is to do a feasibility study, which they did, and sell the project. their share structure is small and stable.  what i think we are seeing in the rise of share price is an institution or 2 buying shares in the company, since their share base is small, it causes the price to rise.   above 1400 the mine becomes workable.  this is a low grade huge mine w/18million ounces of gold , it also has silver and zinc.  i have posted interviews w/riefel , their ceo.  i think this will be a 20 stock at some point it is one of the largest mines in the world

the action in the stock imo reflects some elephants stepping into the room

this is from april of this year 

dharma

[dharma]

gold bottomed in august of 76 (after a 50% down move) it then went up for 7-8 months march/april 77 , then it had a 1-2 month correction. i expect the present time to be very similar to the 70s i got out my chart books from that time and now refer to them . i think the fractal will be revealing

 

overbought here but that is all that can be said. a correction will come . in the 70s after 7-8 months of rise there was a scary correction that lasted 1-2 months then off to the races again.  i look for something similar

dharma

[johngeorge]

Thanks dharma

 

I sure appreciate the commentary, history, and updates.  I did a small bit of selling today.  Culled a miner that has been a laggard for a bit of profit.  Also sold half of a doubler as it lately had been struggling.  Now have nearly a full storehouse of dry powder.  Otherwise staying long and looking for stocks to buy and positions to add to after we get a correction.  As you have said it may be until August before we get a meaningful correction so I will wait.   

[dharma]

what i didnt say is stagflation is coming.  it will be the 70s all over again. 

so far most of the way up , there are still those calling for gold to go below 1k 

there are those calling for a sizable correction, and the market has gone up

sure there will be corrections but i suspect like the 70s corrections will be substandard

as it dawns on more and more folks the cbs of the world are trapped and very limited in what they 

can do. house prices going up is a good thing while food prices going up is a problem  

dharma

[AChartist]

daily cycle extends 5 more days, I would say at least 3 where Mon should be the RUT daily low

 

which might as well go into Tues open.

 

 

What do I know if in 5 days is extends a new 5 days, its right translated.

 

Weekly shows line on close breakout today, it can support one more week then we'll see.

 

Weekly will probably have to into a rephasing after the impulse. For now it has another high in 18 weeks

 

getting into the end of Nov. This is on one day the cycles turn into a spaghetti mess and in the next week

 

reorder.

 

 

Its a different ideology in phys and paper, I have no impulse or instinct to sell any phys but keep

 

being tempted to take some off the paper maybe early next week sell 1/2 positions the worst that can happen is

 

rebuy a new breakout but also think the $5 silver days arent going to be when expected and sitting right on the paper

 

and then there is a deer in the headlights response to avoid chasing. I've gotten over that a little over time if I see an impulse

 

I'll shamelessly chase.

[dharma]

we are getting frothy, gold up 4 days straight.  i think we correct for a few days . we came into resistance @1375 

   according to the world gold council china has your back

then there is this guy- john laforge- golds run is done! look out for a 300 drop -wells fargo strategist-cnbc these guys keep me hopeful. 

i dont own this one but it came to market raised 30million and now the share holders have diluted shares at a reduced price =gpl

corrections are healthy . they are a part of the natural process i expect the one in august will be larger  and its design is to make the bugs afraid

most of the gold community watched in disbelief as this rally unfolded from the dec/jan lows.  they got out 

over the last year + the broad market has gone nowehere, sure looks like distribution to me

dharma

Edited by dharma, 07 July 2016 - 09:48 AM.