4 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Gold’s 13-1/2 Month & 8 Year Cycle Low

Tom McClellan

"But since the 8-year cycle’s ideal arrival date just happens to coincide with the 13-1/2 month cycle low this time, my expectation has been that the two would “nest” together.  So far, there is no evidence to contradict that."

Edited by Rogerdodger, 28 October 2016 - 09:21 AM.

[Smithy]

Not  so fast, Tom.

If you add the average number of days between the last 6 iterations (lows) of the 8 yr cycle to the last one 10/23/08 you get 11/11/16. 

Senor, pass the popcorn.

[Rogerdodger]

Negative Divergence in Gold Stocks Bodes ...

By: Jordan Roy-Byrne | Sat, Oct 29, 2016

While the precious metals sector has rallied over the past few weeks, the rally has been weak and the gold stocks relative weakness in recent days bodes negatively for the sector.

As a result, we are looking for the gold stocks to trade lower and make an important low in the days or weeks to come. Two weeks ago we wrote of a confluence of downside support at GDX $22 and GDXJ $34-$35. The weekly candle charts below show very strong horizontal support targets a tad lower at GDX $21 and GDXJ $33. Roughly speaking, this indicates  potentially 10% downside in GDX and 15% downside in GDXJ.

 

[risk_management]

I'll play the line.

 

 

[Smithy]

The problem with Jordon's "the gold stocks lead to the downside" argument is that at the bottom last December, gold itself bottomed Dec 2nd where gold stocks went on to make a new low Jan 19th - his argument didn't work. He may be right this time, but the point is flawed.