575 replies to this topic

[Russ]

 

 

 

Until the chart breaks the bottom trend line with force the uptrend is not reversing. I have clear trends on this chart for the final peak in the summer of 2018, that agrees with the latest thing that Armstrong said in an interview, that Gold may not start to really move up until late 2018, that would mean that any rally this summer is going to fail and then down into spring/summer of 2018. The reason would be that Europe starts to crack up sending capital into American assets which would cause the dollar to surge.

[senorBS]

 

O{n the other hand this sentiment indicator is scremaing BUY

 

https://www.kimblech...-26-640x399.jpg

I bet if you plugged in GDXJ it would look even worse, BTW gold might have ended iv of 5 today from the 1206 May low so we could correct that rally and perhaps the miners work lower to end what I favor is an ongoing correction

 

Senor

 

Here's a link to the GDXJ losing 1.8 Billion in assets, from 5.5 billion on April 12th to a new recent low of 3.69 billion, a rather incredible drop but that is what this rebalancing has done IMO and GDX has gone from 12.44 Billion to the 9.06 Billion latest level. These are really staggering percentage declines, it's going to be very interesting once this rebalancing is over in the next few weeks or so

 

https://ycharts.com/...nder_management

 

Senor

[gannman]

there is no job growth we are in a muddlle thru type of economy which is actually not a bad thing. so lets see how we trade 

[EHW]

From Armstrong:

 

Friday, June 2, 2017For the first time gold has closed technically above the Downtrend Line on the monthly chart settling at 1274.40 when the line stood at 1266.72. However, the Breakout Line from the 1999 low is now coming into play. This stands at 1284.43 now during June and the Downtrend Line now provides some support at 1257.05. 

We are still not in a breakout mode for Technical Resistance remains at 1381.80 for June and we still have 1362 and the Monthly Bullish Reversal. We still have resistance at 1306 but support is now firming up at 1257 to 1261.

Timing wise, gold has a seasonal time for turning points in June/July.  Ideally, July would be a 7 month high. May closed higher than April, but has not made new intraday highs above 1297.40, which was the April high. Therefore, reaching 1306 is certainly within reason.

There still is no indication of a major reversal in long-term trend just yet. The risk to the downside still remains largely to the prospect of a dollar rally. 

So pay attention. A June/July high is possible and do not get all bullish until we breakout of 1362. The prospects of still this creating just a bull trap are high and then we can still swing down, take out $1,000, and the propel this up in a real slingshot move with plenty of energy moving into the future. 

We are finishing up the Gold Report.

[senorBS]

ever get the feeling there is a lid being held down tightly on the miners and its about getting ready to get blown to sh@t?  we see as the immense "pressure cooker" is "jumpy"

 

NO BS

 

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 02 June 2017 - 10:21 AM.

[dharma]

senor , i have been looking at how much money poured out of gdx/gdxj its huge. how that indicates bearishness i dont know. its very bullish to see people throw in the towel and walk away from the sector. which i agree w/gannman is a pressure cooker

the jobs #s confirm my notion the fed is trapped. they can never leave the market.  and w/them in the market, they will screw things up!

the gst # comes out tomorrow.  the indian gmen have not been kind to gold, nor do i expect them to be.  

is this move a fakeout. trapping the bulls ????

i have the dtrend line at about 1280   i would think taking that out on a closing basis will get some momo players in the sector

dharma

[senorBS]

senor , i have been looking at how much money poured out of gdx/gdxj its huge. how that indicates bearishness i dont know. its very bullish to see people throw in the towel and walk away from the sector. which i agree w/gannman is a pressure cooker

the jobs #s confirm my notion the fed is trapped. they can never leave the market.  and w/them in the market, they will screw things up!

the gst # comes out tomorrow.  the indian gmen have not been kind to gold, nor do i expect them to be.  

is this move a fakeout. trapping the bulls ????

i have the dtrend line at about 1280   i would think taking that out on a closing basis will get some momo players in the sector

dharma

I'm thinking a lot of people used the rebalance as a reason to exit the sector, IMO given how much money exited in a 6-7 week time frame I'm surprised mining indices/ETFs did not take out their early May lows, GDX corrected about 50% of the May rally at its 22.20 recent low and is now trading near 22.80. I still can't rule out one more leg down to just below 22.20 but I like the overall upside potential at this time.

 

Senor

[dougie]

I think he nails it here imo

From Armstrong:
 
Friday, June 2, 2017For the first time gold has closed technically above the Downtrend Line on the monthly chart settling at 1274.40 when the line stood at 1266.72. However, the Breakout Line from the 1999 low is now coming into play. This stands at 1284.43 now during June and the Downtrend Line now provides some support at 1257.05. 


We are still not in a breakout mode for Technical Resistance remains at 1381.80 for June and we still have 1362 and the Monthly Bullish Reversal. We still have resistance at 1306 but support is now firming up at 1257 to 1261.
Timing wise, gold has a seasonal time for turning points in June/July.  Ideally, July would be a 7 month high. May closed higher than April, but has not made new intraday highs above 1297.40, which was the April high. Therefore, reaching 1306 is certainly within reason.
There still is no indication of a major reversal in long-term trend just yet. The risk to the downside still remains largely to the prospect of a dollar rally. 
So pay attention. A June/July high is possible and do not get all bullish until we breakout of 1362. The prospects of still this creating just a bull trap are high and then we can still swing down, take out $1,000, and the propel this up in a real slingshot move with plenty of energy moving into the future. 
We are finishing up the Gold Report.

[senorBS]

more on the GDXJ rebalance

 

http://www.zerohedge...e-catching-time

[gannman]

my whole premise here is that gld and slv started a wave 3 up on may 9. the decline on slv into may 9 is what

 

sold me on this count. this ties in with what is happening with the dollar which is in a confirmed down trend now.

 

we are set up imo for a large rally in gld and slv. gld wave 1 was about 300 bucks to expect wave 3 to be at least

 

400 bucks is not unreasonable. that would put gld at 155 on this leg up which i believe we have an excellent chance 

 

of seeing . just my take just sharing my thoughts i could be all wrong but i like the way gld is trading and the stocks 

 

are going to kick into gear at some point . fnv rgld gold already have kicked in  please feel free to poke holes in this

 

fine with me any decent trader is always looking to see how he might be wrong  and believe me i want armstrong to 

 

keep looking for 1000 dollar gold that is fine with me he is not my cup of tea no offense meant he just isnt

 

and the trend is def up in gld pullbacks to be expected

Edited by gannman, 02 June 2017 - 02:13 PM.