14th straight down day silver, what will it take? key in miners with March lows being taken out (GDX/HUI/XAU) is whether we might be close to ending a large and deep abc decline from last July/Aug highs, or we will keep declining and take out the Dec 2016 lows?
Senor
wave 3??!!
Started by
dharma
, May 01 2017 09:40 AM
575 replies to this topic
#31
dougie
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Posted 05 May 2017 - 02:21 AM
Now who is talking bearish?
#32
senorBS
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Posted 05 May 2017 - 08:14 AM
Now who is talking bearish?
14th straight down day silver, what will it take? key in miners with March lows being taken out (GDX/HUI/XAU) is whether we might be close to ending a large and deep abc decline from last July/Aug highs, or we will keep declining and take out the Dec 2016 lows?
Senor
I have only been holding an 18% core position, I am simply adjusting to what I see as the current possibilities based upon this weeks action. Silver's 12 hr RSI has now basically tied the most oversold level in the past 2-3 years - since Nov 2015, I added pre-market and boosted my long position to 25%, as always DYODD
Senor
#33
Smithy
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Posted 05 May 2017 - 09:38 AM
Good luck, Senor, it's tricky country.
#34
senorBS
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Posted 05 May 2017 - 09:48 AM
An important thing to note here is that the GDX/XAU/HUI all took out their March lows the past few days and "so far" RSI is very oversold but is "currently" registering a potential daily bullish divergence against those March lows.. Remember there does remain a very bullish wave count that this last leg down is ending wave C of an ABC decline from the Feb highs for a wave 2 - correcting a bullish 5-wave rally from the Dec lows to Feb highs. Note that the GDX and HUI did go modestly below their .618 retracements but are currently back above them (GDX 21.30 and HUI 184 area). The potential wave C looks like a possible 5-wave daily decline complete from the wave B high on April 13. This is one viable and compelling wave count IF and I stress IF we rally significantly from here. Frankly at this time its hard for me to envision this weeks low as a wave 3 bottom when I look at these 3 indices/ETFs. A strong rally here gets me more and more bullish, while a significant and sustained decline below the weeks lows look more bearish.
BSing away
Senor
#35
dharma
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Posted 05 May 2017 - 10:40 AM
i am tending to agree w/senor that this is a C which is ending. at present i see oversold conditions for everything in the sector. But there are no daily or hourly divergences that i see using my trusty 9bar wilder rsi. so instead of backing up the truck, i am waiting for these to develop. now today is the bradley, hadik had may 3-5 as dates to watch, and its right in the wheel house for the low of the 17.32 weekly cycle lows. silver is down 14 days straight , not counting today, as senor has been stating. gotta be close or at some kind of record. my worry is december lows were A , feb highs B and we are in C here for a larger ABC . we could be close here? for me though, i may not jump in . i need to see some proof of bottoming. otherwise i wait. w/the market being so compressed, the rally could be explosive. so waiting. watching we have had several days of capitulation w/huge amounts of funds removed from gdx and gld.
dharma
to trade this market and viable for as long as some of the participants on this board has is a testament to their sanity and ability to swim w/the sharks
todays cot should show a huge drawdown in the commercials(sharks ) short position
#36
senorBS
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Posted 05 May 2017 - 10:54 AM
Dharma, you don't have daily divergences in HUI or XAU or GDX? I have MacD diverging "so far" as well
Senor
#37
gannman
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Posted 05 May 2017 - 10:56 AM
Fwiw I think we are in 4 of C here we will see I think the situation is very bullish over the next 8 or 9 months
feeling mellow with the yellow metal
#38
gannman
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Posted 05 May 2017 - 10:59 AM
If it is a 4 should rally for a few days before a final bottom
feeling mellow with the yellow metal
#39
senorBS
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Posted 05 May 2017 - 11:20 AM
Fwiw I think we are in 4 of C here we will see I think the situation is very bullish over the next 8 or 9 months
looking at HUI/GDX/XAU doesn't look like it needs a daily 4/5 sub to me but I have been often wrong before, we see
Senor
#40
dharma
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Posted 05 May 2017 - 12:07 PM
Fwiw I think we are in 4 of C here we will see I think the situation is very bullish over the next 8 or 9 months
looking at HUI/GDX/XAU doesn't look like it needs a daily 4/5 sub to me but I have been often wrong before, we see
Senor
well on my rsi the 2nd reading is lower than the first on all of those you mention above.
The DSI fell 11 points to 46% (the March low was 31%).
The HGNSI was unch at 19.23%.
we may very well be at the lows, i will lift the hedges if it feels right.
we are close , need a rally , then another decline, so i agree w/gannman there
and i say that to satisfy these divergences to develop of course the market can and will do anything
especially if le pen wins. and just as the pollsters got it wrong dead wrong w/trump they may have
it wrong in france. folks have seen their standard of li\ving fall w/ the euro . they may be fed up as they
were here. ???????
dharma
