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i am watching the dollar with fascination

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#1 gannman



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Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:08 PM

just how oversold can it get. i dont know i am not a currency guy but man this bad boy just keeps going down 



feeling mellow with the yellow metal

#2 johngeorge



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Posted 01 February 2018 - 09:43 PM

This P&F chart says it may drop as far as 80.11


#3 Rich C

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Posted 01 February 2018 - 10:37 PM

I have the sense that many feel this market is bulletproof, nothing can go wrong.  That's a scary feeling.  Could dollar weakness be the canary in the coal mine?  With the Fed on a continual rate increase mission, that should bolster the dollar, but it is not.  Are rates rising faster elsewhere, leading to a dollar slide?  I don't see, but I don't watch the entire world.  Are US stocks very overvalued and are investors taking money out of US funds and into international funds?  Certainly there are positive inflows into equity ETF's, but if those just come from US money markets, it could mask withdrawals of money moving to international stock market viewed as more favorably valued.  The weak dollar will benefit our export sales, but it will also be inflationary at home.  Witness, the price of oil has doubled in 3 years.  That can also have something to do with the Saudi's controlling production to keep the price high, until they sell a stake in Aramco.


Could investors be looking at the impact of the tax cuts on our deficit, and our total inability to exercise anything resembling fiscal discipline, and allocate resources away from the US?


The question of why the dollar is so weak right now is of great interest.  The next question is what impact the weak dollar would have over time.


By my observation, a strong dollar is desirable because it indicates investors think the US markets are healthy and attractive and funds flow here.  This holds true until the strong dollar impedes exports and puts a drag on our economy, then earnings can go down and investments flow out of the US.  I view it as part of the business cycle.  The strong dollar is good, until it is not.


The inverse discussion on the weak dollar holds, IMO.


But countering the idea that nothing can go wrong, if the dollar weakness brings inflation back faster than planned, and the Fed has to act quicker than they have previously indicated, and the bond markets get messy, the stock market could be vulnerable.

Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com


My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months and I focus on SPY.  During the Corona virus bear market I use more sector funds to avoid the bad spots in the SPY such as energy, hotels, and the airlines.

#4 diogenes227



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Posted 02 February 2018 - 12:29 AM

As I posted back in June, the latest most obvious no-brainer of our time.




Currency is a vote by the world on your country every day.


P.S. By the way, that "Axis of Evil Speech" back there at the dollar top was a State Of The Union Address also.

Edited by diogenes227, 02 February 2018 - 12:34 AM.

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”


"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."

#5 dharma



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Posted 03 February 2018 - 11:25 AM

there is alot to be said about the dollar.  in no particular order

the US economy is the stock market. , yes it is over valued by several metrics 

a lower dollar makes US exports cheaper compared to say the euro which has been appreciating, this is currency wars

raising the debt ceiling has become a bad joke, no cuts in spending just cuts in revenue.  china holds the most bonds , why should they , from their perspective continue to support the bonds when  the currency is falling and there is no resolution on the debt ceiling

cutting taxes is great for US citizens, however it will increase  the deficits 


87 the dollar was in a down trend at some point it affected the stock market -it crashed 509 points from a high in the 2700 s , that is a huge % crash 


all of the spinning plates are starting to fall off their supports 

and its not just the dollar . 

what if there is a majority of dems in the house come november. do they bring trump up for impeachment?  the usa is being pulled apart in so many directions

then there is a guy in North korea , that keeps threatening  the USA  what a species?!

#6 tradesurfer



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Posted 03 February 2018 - 01:19 PM

Armstrong has been saying that there will be huge rally in the dollar and euro will top at 125 to 128.

And thus Europe will go broke (government)