631 replies to this topic

[dharma]

 

lots of stuff indicating bottom the commercials , as of last tuesday, added a very significant #of longs. i need to see a 5 wave advance , then we can be more sure of a turn. after that 5 wave advance becomes significant to determine the trend. right now there are alot of factors creating evidence of a low. 

nothing conclusive  

dharma

i found this interesting 

https://katusaresear...ocks-right-now/

Dharma, nice move up in Novo today after it barely took out the late May spike low, that may have been downside pattern completion, I did add to my initial position on the decline below 3 last week.

 

Senor

 

they should be coming out w/drill results soon. so far it seems this strike is similar to pvg, in that they have very high grades in areas and little to nothing in other areas. but overall its a high grade strike. pacxf . i have all i want right now of both. the thing is the sentiment in the miners needs to change when that happens then it will be a different environment. part of the progression of a bull market. , whenever that happens

dharma

[SemiBizz]

Open Interest went UP

 

Price went DOWN

 

Bears in Control

 

XAU - CLOSING LOW OF 2018 TODAY - 78.11

 

Sorry, but you all know the miners precede the gold price.

[senorBS]

 

just a few more days till Bananarama sings Venus....

 

 

 

so far ol Venus 23rd date is lookin rather interesting as is that Hurst cycle low as well - thx for that amigos. The weaker HUI took out the March low yesterday by dos centavos (does it have eyes?) and "might" have ended a deep wave 2 under the bullish count, big time oversold with divergences everywhere and everyone is bearish with COT's looking supportive as well. IMO downside looks limited and upside big, as always its only a best guess but risk/reward to this old hombre looks about as good as it gets, we see

 

BSing away

 

Senor

[dharma]

senor agree.  well dharma will there be a lower low , will gold take out 1200? i dont think so, but it could.  july/december have been a time in the gold market where bottoms have occurred.  we have had a long string of sentiment readings basis the dsi/hgnsi that have indicated sentiment is at a point where turns occur. w/dsi readings of 7/8. oscillators are also oversold.  could it still collapse below 1200 sure. but its not the way i am looking.  the commercials added 24k worth of longs as of last tuesdays  cots. they are considered smart money. open interest expanded which says the spec longs have been aggressively adding to their short positions.  

the forensics look to me like we are in bottoming action.(thus the title for the thread.) bottoms can be a process.  just look at the gold chart for the last 5 years. inverse head and shouldering action! it seems to me big money(like ray dalio  and gundlach) have been accumulating positions.  hadiks window is the 18-25  we are right there. mercury goes retrograde tomorrow.  we shall see, my money is on this is a bottoming process in the seasonal weak time of year. and i am prepared to buy more should we pull back even more.  i dont think this is a time to be selling. but in 40 years of doing this i have been wrong alot. the key is being able to fight another battle

dharma

[dharma]

ps the last time sentiment # were this low was dec of 15

dharma

[Smithy]

Dharma, got a link for Hadik's window?  TIA...

[dharma]

posted it some pages back

dharma

[senorBS]

From another board and posted yesterday: Sentimentrader yesterday recorded lowest readings in the seven-year bear market, just above the Dec 2015 extreme. Returns following in the short term, one week to a few months, were 50/50, but extending further to a year saw significant gains. So the question remains, is the flush complete?

Meanwhile in the shares, optix saw huge one-day flushes, the kind that at least lead to interim bounces, but 10dmas are still not at levels marking prior total utter capitulation.

 

Bottom Line

• Sentiment on gold, silver, and platinum now ranks among the worst since 1990
• Similarly depressed sentiment led to excellent returns in several metals funds

 

Gotta like that stuff

 

BSing away

 

Senor

[dharma]

here is the captains count. http://www.321gold.com/editorials/captainewave/captainewave072518/gold_daily.png not sure i agree, seems to be popular calling for one more low. i believe we are there, if not then we are very close.   miners are and have been under accumulation.here is his weekly chart http://www.321gold.c...gold_weekly.png  counting it as a double 3

dharma

Edited by dharma, 25 July 2018 - 03:16 PM.

[senorBS]

one of the most bifurcated miner markets I have seen, Aussie golds up over 3% last night and many stocks there near yearly highs, we have some earnings crushes goin on in GG/CDE/ABX/AEM with NEM up, perhaps this is the "selected" miner capitulation day or few days, added a litle on weakness, now about 55% long, as always DYODD

 

Senor