631 replies to this topic

[dharma]

cots  http://news.goldseek.../1533929238.php

 well the cots are very bullish to my eyes. the large specs reduced longs and significantly added to their shorts the commercials, the sharks, significantly added to their longs while reducing shorts.. in silver the large specs are closed to balanced. and for the dollar the commercials are very lopsided short the dollar.

folks these are the best , bullish cots i have seen in a long long time.  they dont ring a bell at the bottom , but the chain bear posting around here and the cots in general are quite bullish.  the commercials are going to swallow up alot of the bait. and by the way , there are times when the dollar and gold move together. 

we are very close if not there yet, i am now accumulating gdx. and a few miners.  

dharma

the dsi and hgnsi,  have given some of the lowest readings on this last pull down. now we need the market to start impulsing up.  

but i am working slowly here, i want to see some more proof the  lows are in

gold hit its low july 19th .

Edited by dharma, 10 August 2018 - 02:51 PM.

[Smithy]

Yeah, the comms are nearly net long, lol. Only -25,000 short. Since my records were kept (2004) these levels only hit in the 2013 plunge and Dec 2015 low.  These previous periods data were within 2-3 weeks of a turn.

[Russ]

the tell?  .... 

[dharma]

turkey and venezuala appear to be in trouble. the turkish lira is starting to enter"free fallin"(a favorite tom petty song) what is significant is their obligations to banks , and this is where it gets interesting. up until today the markets in the usa have been in appreciation mode But today , the usa market along w/all the european indexes took it on the chin.  to my memory 97 was the last contagion w/long term capital going belly up along w/the asian tigers getting stretched. .  and the russian default on its debt

 A Financial Times article reported the European Central Bank is looking into the Turkish exposure of major banks like Spain’s BBVA, Italy’s UniCredit and France’s BNP Paribas. All three of them ended the trading day down big time... BBVA nearly 6%.. so , we will find out soon which banks are exposed to turkey. these times only have relative stability and only for periods of time.  and right on cue gold is in an advanced stage of its bottoming process.  

now keep in mind turkey is part of nato, and the usa has a significant air base there.

dharma

we are close to the shorts having to run for cover. and as smithy points out this cot resembles the cot of dec 15 just before the turn

[Smithy]

Re the banks, "You find out who's been swimming naked when the tide goes out."  - Warren Buffett

[Russ]

looks like lots of trouble over there dharma... https://moneyandmark...Article-Traffic

[Smithy]

As a gold bull this USD chart worries me. Yes, we get a gold rally soon but what happens after that? If the USD soars, will gold collapse?

 

[Russ]

lack of new lows and some indices holding previous lows should at least produce a bounce... 

[Smithy]

Sunday 8/12

 

More on the gold COT. No surprise my gold COT system remains on a buy signal, now more extreme than last week.

The last two comparable sell signals were

(1) 1/6/17 and gold bottomed before on 12/2/16

(2) 7/21/17, ditto gold bottomed before on 7/9/17.

 

Confirms the chorus here that the COT points to a gold low. Gold has a habit of false breaks so it wouldn't surprise me if gold busts down through the multimonth trend line support at 1208 and recovers. The nature of the coming rally will determine the trend of the gold market for years to come. Only bullish above 1365.

 

The silver futures OI is 235,440 a new record, maintaining its 9 year parabolic rise. Indicates money is flowing into silver.

[Smithy]

Typo...

 

The last 2 comparable sell signals  = The last two comparable BUY signals.