Weatherbell.com put out our preseason forecast in August, we outlined several factors that would contribute to a winter that could produce extremes of cold and snow in the U.S. and Europe, https://patriotpost....or-coldmageddon
Specifically, we argued that a weak Modoki El Niño pattern would develop
So we took the El Niño years of 2002-2003, 2006-2007, 2009-2010, and 2014-2015 and said this winter would reflect them. The blend gives us a cold November into early December, followed by a milder period before it turns cold mid-January into February.
That is what winter has done and is doing.
We also argued that the configuration of sea surface temperatures would encourage a more active Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is relatively rare during an El Niño winter, but when it happens, like it did in 1977-1978, it means extreme winter weather during January, February, and March.
Finally, we identified the threat for a major stratospheric warming event. During the strat-warm years we warned people about — 1966, 1985, and 1994 — major warming occurred late in December, and then from mid-January on, winter turned extreme. In two of the three cases it was very warm in late December and into early January, but the last 10 days of the month and into February and March were very cold. This is happening again.
Bottom line: This winter is starting to hit its stride, and we believe the overall cold, stormy pattern lasts well into March in both the U.S. and Europe.
Edited by stocks, 24 January 2019 - 04:34 PM.