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#1 dougie

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Posted 14 April 2019 - 07:14 PM

Anyone buying coffee down in here? On sle for sure and seems risk reward pretty good. Doubt this is the final low...but ya never know



#2 flyers&divers

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 05:37 PM

In 1983, at the time I left the trading floor and the coffee pit at the Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange (now ICE) the futures C contract - the one JO is based on - was 40-50% higher then now. That should tell us something.

I am super bullish long term on agricultural commodities because of the effects of climate change and population trends and frankly I don't understand how they have not affect the market yet to a grat degree. 

 

Here is a link to a monthly interactive chart from ICE:

http://futures.tradi....com/chart/CF/M

One has to keep an eye on the spreads in the futures. Once they start tightening one will know it's time to build positions.

Seasonals suggest a favorable time window for the next 30 or so days.

http://www.equityclo...seasonal-chart/

 

Regards,

f&d


Edited by flyers&divers, 15 April 2019 - 05:38 PM.

"Successful trading is more about Sun Tzu then Elliott." F&D

#3 flyers&divers

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 06:11 PM

Looking at the weekly chart there is climactic volume and today someone traded an even 700 lots of June 21 puts

most likely to finance calls. This may turn out to be an interesting junction.

 

f&d


"Successful trading is more about Sun Tzu then Elliott." F&D

#4 dougie

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Posted 16 April 2019 - 01:11 AM

thanks for sharing



#5 dasein

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Posted 06 May 2019 - 05:25 PM

i am trying to buy grains, but JO looks good too - all ags....


best,
klh

#6 diogenes227

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Posted 06 May 2019 - 08:13 PM

I haven't traded coffee in years now, haven't even looked at it, but holy cow, what short!

 

You guys are trying to buy this?  Good luck cuz that looks to me like all you've got going for you on the long side.

 

Here's a tale of two charts - as Dickens might say..."it was the worst of times, it was the best of times."

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#7 dougie

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Posted 07 May 2019 - 01:19 AM

Ok i ll tell you what: you go short and i will go long and we will compare notes in a year



#8 diogenes227

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Posted 07 May 2019 - 08:08 AM

Ok i ll tell you what: you go short and i will go long and we will compare notes in a year

 

A year is not a time fraime I personally trust. Who knows what a year can bring?

 

On the charts, it's buy the yellow, sell the blue (the color coding both on the moving average and the daily price actions)...that is if I was trading this. For a long I think it would be prudent to wait for the cup of jo tip its hand, so to speak.


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#9 dougie

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Posted 05 June 2019 - 09:36 PM

thanks for sharing

 

Ok i ll tell you what: you go short and i will go long and we will compare notes in a year

that was a decent 20% move off the lows that day.



#10 diogenes227

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Posted 06 June 2019 - 12:13 AM

Uh... oops...

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."