10 replies to this topic

[Russ]

 'If gold peaks with the bottom of the ECM it could then fall back to retest support.'

 

 

Blog/Gold Posted Jan 6, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, Do you think it will be time to short the bonds with the ECM? Gold had bounced off the Downtrend line instead of electing the bearish reversals and it rallied after the Pi turning point. You said if gold peaked with the bottom of the ECM it could then fall back to retest support. It looks as if that happens, the Fed will lose the battle and interest rates will rise after the ECM. Is this all a set up like the gold rally back in 1979 following the Afghan invasion? It looks too familiar.

HB

ANSWER: Ah, you have a good memory. It would have been much better had gold made a new low, held the 1980 high, and then rallied with the ECM turn in 2020. That would have clearly been a long-term sustainable trend. Bouncing off of the Bear Reversals & Downtrend Line and then rallying with the Pi turning point 2018.89, pointed to a rally into the next ECM (2020.05). I warned that given that pattern we would rally to test the Yearly Bullish at 1432 and at the WEC I warned that a close above that pointed to a rally into the January 18th turning point with the next resistance at the 1585 level.

The spike up in gold is clearly reminiscent of the Russian invasion of Afghanistan on December 24, 1979. That was under the pretext of upholding the Soviet-Afghan Friendship Treaty of 1978. As midnight approached, the Soviets organized a massive military airlift into Kabul, involving an estimated 280 transport aircraft and three divisions of almost 8,500 men each.

 

Currently, our system resistance has stood at 1585 followed by 1620 with technical resistance in the 1575-1595 level. We most certainly have to be concerned if gold peaks with the ECM. This will not be a good omen and I agree it is reminiscent of the pattern of 1980. The interest rates the exploded and peaked in May 1981 with the top of the ECM back then.

With the Repo Crisis and the Fed desperately trying to prevent interest rates from rising, which was opposite back in 1979-1981, we still have to be very cautious about how all the markets line up on our model for this turning point. Back then, gold peaked on its own cycle on January 21, 1980, while the interest rates rallied further peaking with the top of the ECM precisely – 1981.35.

We will do the gold report after the ECM turn.    https://www.armstron...ld-war-the-ecm/

 

 

 

[linrom1]

So according to Armstrong, this whole rally would have to be corrective? What is his LT support, $800?

Edited by linrom1, 06 January 2020 - 10:07 AM.

[gannman]

thanks for that russ. i think we could pull back slightly into his jan 18 date and then take off fwiw 

 

this rally is real and is going a lot lot highter of that i have no doubt 

[Russ]

Current Gold chart with Armstrong overhead resistance level in yellow.  Armstrong's support is way above 800, not even close, his support would be 1445ish or 1362.  I tend to agree with you Gannman, gold is strong and any weakness is going to be short lived but I also have great respect for Mr. A's Pi cycle which is statistically proven into the billions to one odds.

 

Edited by Russ, 06 January 2020 - 10:14 AM.

[Russ]

In no way is this rally corrective, Armstrong has been predicting a major international debt crisis for over 3 decades and it is all starting to fall into place now,  he expects gold to go to many thousands of dollars per ounce, at least 5k but likely much more,  I have seen his recent predictions on price but I think he said at least 5k in past years. He has also been predicting WAR for a few years based on his cycles and also Wheeler's 25 year war cycle. 

[gannman]

russ i view any pullbacks as a gift ffrom the gods ha ha

[linrom1]

In no way is this rally corrective, Armstrong has been predicting a major international debt crisis for over 3 decades and it is all starting to fall into place now,  he expects gold to go to many thousands of dollars per ounce, at least 5k but likely much more,  I have seen his recent predictions on price but I think he said at least 5k in past years. He has also been predicting WAR for a few years based on his cycles and also Wheeler's 25 year war cycle. 

It's hard to tell what he means by support, especially when he talks about gold peak in 1981? Gold was over extended anyway, its daily RSI was over 86.

[gannman]

i also can see a significant top in the broad market mid to late january. i have to see it for myself 

 

since this market never tops but it is possible. but gold is golden here for years to come imo

[Russ]

 

In no way is this rally corrective, Armstrong has been predicting a major international debt crisis for over 3 decades and it is all starting to fall into place now,  he expects gold to go to many thousands of dollars per ounce, at least 5k but likely much more,  I have seen his recent predictions on price but I think he said at least 5k in past years. He has also been predicting WAR for a few years based on his cycles and also Wheeler's 25 year war cycle. 

It's hard to tell what he means by support, especially when he talks about gold peak in 1981? Gold was over extended anyway, its daily RSI was over 86.

 

He wrote it in another article, that support is what I said.

[gannman]

i dont follow armstrong but lets say his jan 18 to 19 dates are important

 

what i see in the gdx is it rallied from late may into sep 4 and has been doing 

 

an abc correction ever since with the c wave starting jan 3 so lets say the gdx

 

pulls back into jan 21 the astro sign change that would be a perfect correction 

 

into armstrongs date. from an elliot standpoint i would be looking for iii of 3 to 

 

start at that time. we will see its all conjecture what i can tell you guys is the 

 

time segmented volume on both gold and the gold stocks looks good to me 

 

now i am interested to see what happens this week . and again i am not an

 

armstrong follower but that date is out there lets see if it produces any

 

important tuns. gold and the miners are setup to rally doesnt mean they will

 

but they are sure set up to