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XOP: FEB 2016 bottom and now 2020 bottom?


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#1 senorBS

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 03:11 PM

Given the huge easing/lowering of rates that many of us have talked about on the gold threads and the big move up we have seen there, when looking at the XOP I had to wonder if OIL/OIL stocks just might soon register a KEY low and have at least int to longer term big bounces. Barring a revolution in alternate fuel technology and easy application this analysis could apply to the next tear or two. 

 

Technically IMO we are right now in a very, very similar situation as we were when making the Feb 2016 XOP low. It is eerily similar as WEEKLY downside momentum registered its low in Dec of 2014 in this current case Weekly momentum bottomed in Dec of 2018. A higher momentum low with lower price lows was then registered in Aug of 2015/Aug 2018, and now with the recent new long term price lows this month another higher momentum reading is being registered.

In addition basis monthly charts THE momentum low (since XOP inception in 2006) was registered WITH the price in Feb 2016 and THIS CURRENT NEW LOW is so far registering a very significant monthly divergence against 2016.

There are NEVER any guarantees that a similar key bottom and large intermediate term rally will arose from this area, however the stage IMO is certainly set. s always DYODD

@@@ Note that I am using weekly CLOSING prices for this analysis



#2 stubaby

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 03:36 PM

Given the huge easing/lowering of rates that many of us have talked about on the gold threads and the big move up we have seen there, when looking at the XOP I had to wonder if OIL/OIL stocks just might soon register a KEY low and have at least int to longer term big bounces. Barring a revolution in alternate fuel technology and easy application this analysis could apply to the next tear or two. 

 

Technically IMO we are right now in a very, very similar situation as we were when making the Feb 2016 XOP low. It is eerily similar as WEEKLY downside momentum registered its low in Dec of 2014 in this current case Weekly momentum bottomed in Dec of 2018. A higher momentum low with lower price lows was then registered in Aug of 2015/Aug 2018, and now with the recent new long term price lows this month another higher momentum reading is being registered.

In addition basis monthly charts THE momentum low (since XOP inception in 2006) was registered WITH the price in Feb 2016 and THIS CURRENT NEW LOW is so far registering a very significant monthly divergence against 2016.

There are NEVER any guarantees that a similar key bottom and large intermediate term rally will arose from this area, however the stage IMO is certainly set. s always DYODD

@@@ Note that I am using weekly CLOSING prices for this analysis

That's a scary chart!  You like them that way Senor!

 

http://schrts.co/EQbazQGq



#3 senorBS

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 04:39 PM

 

Given the huge easing/lowering of rates that many of us have talked about on the gold threads and the big move up we have seen there, when looking at the XOP I had to wonder if OIL/OIL stocks just might soon register a KEY low and have at least int to longer term big bounces. Barring a revolution in alternate fuel technology and easy application this analysis could apply to the next tear or two. 

 

Technically IMO we are right now in a very, very similar situation as we were when making the Feb 2016 XOP low. It is eerily similar as WEEKLY downside momentum registered its low in Dec of 2014 in this current case Weekly momentum bottomed in Dec of 2018. A higher momentum low with lower price lows was then registered in Aug of 2015/Aug 2018, and now with the recent new long term price lows this month another higher momentum reading is being registered.

In addition basis monthly charts THE momentum low (since XOP inception in 2006) was registered WITH the price in Feb 2016 and THIS CURRENT NEW LOW is so far registering a very significant monthly divergence against 2016.

There are NEVER any guarantees that a similar key bottom and large intermediate term rally will arose from this area, however the stage IMO is certainly set. s always DYODD

@@@ Note that I am using weekly CLOSING prices for this analysis

That's a scary chart!  You like them that way Senor!

 

http://schrts.co/EQbazQGq

 

seems about as washed out a sector as I have ever seen but then again there are "reasons" for that, but as a chart/technical guy if I saw the daily-weekly-monthly technicals into these current lows I would always bet (without knowing what sector it was) at least a key trading bottom is nearby, but maybe its different this time or there is a lot more washout to go.? I have bot a very, very small amount, as I like to put at least some money where my grande mouth is!purebs.gif

 

Senor



#4 stubaby

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Posted 21 February 2020 - 05:34 PM

 

 

Given the huge easing/lowering of rates that many of us have talked about on the gold threads and the big move up we have seen there, when looking at the XOP I had to wonder if OIL/OIL stocks just might soon register a KEY low and have at least int to longer term big bounces. Barring a revolution in alternate fuel technology and easy application this analysis could apply to the next tear or two. 

 

Technically IMO we are right now in a very, very similar situation as we were when making the Feb 2016 XOP low. It is eerily similar as WEEKLY downside momentum registered its low in Dec of 2014 in this current case Weekly momentum bottomed in Dec of 2018. A higher momentum low with lower price lows was then registered in Aug of 2015/Aug 2018, and now with the recent new long term price lows this month another higher momentum reading is being registered.

In addition basis monthly charts THE momentum low (since XOP inception in 2006) was registered WITH the price in Feb 2016 and THIS CURRENT NEW LOW is so far registering a very significant monthly divergence against 2016.

There are NEVER any guarantees that a similar key bottom and large intermediate term rally will arose from this area, however the stage IMO is certainly set. s always DYODD

@@@ Note that I am using weekly CLOSING prices for this analysis

That's a scary chart!  You like them that way Senor!

 

http://schrts.co/EQbazQGq

 

seems about as washed out a sector as I have ever seen but then again there are "reasons" for that, but as a chart/technical guy if I saw the daily-weekly-monthly technicals into these current lows I would always bet (without knowing what sector it was) at least a key trading bottom is nearby, but maybe its different this time or there is a lot more washout to go.? I have bot a very, very small amount, as I like to put at least some money where my grande mouth is!purebs.gif

 

Senor

 

You will have me watching more closely than normal here!  I see all the potential divergences setting up - I want to see at least "some" attempts to turn price around before any of my money goes into play (I know the sector well from both a technical and fundamental perspective, FWIW)  

 

Thanks for your heads-up Senor.

 

stu

 

 

PS  what beautiful long-white candles across the PM complex on the weekly charts! 



#5 crossd

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Posted 01 March 2020 - 03:39 PM

on Dec 9th Barrons said time to start fishing in the oil services sector..they picked BKR and PUMP 9.50..forget the BKR price

PUMP chart looks interesting..target was 14..just this week think Ray James..not sure ..reiterated a strong buy target 16-18

 

it popped to 10+ then the crash..check that one out

 

donc..no position yet



#6 linrom1

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Posted 02 March 2020 - 10:04 AM

XOP, I changed my mind on this. It's acting as leading indicator of market. Despite oil(CL,USOIL) up big this thing is declining.  It peaked at 84, it could decline 90%?



#7 Smithy

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Posted 18 March 2020 - 04:56 PM

Today 3/18, XOP closed at 7.77; looks cheap.