Given the huge easing/lowering of rates that many of us have talked about on the gold threads and the big move up we have seen there, when looking at the XOP I had to wonder if OIL/OIL stocks just might soon register a KEY low and have at least int to longer term big bounces. Barring a revolution in alternate fuel technology and easy application this analysis could apply to the next tear or two.
Technically IMO we are right now in a very, very similar situation as we were when making the Feb 2016 XOP low. It is eerily similar as WEEKLY downside momentum registered its low in Dec of 2014 in this current case Weekly momentum bottomed in Dec of 2018. A higher momentum low with lower price lows was then registered in Aug of 2015/Aug 2018, and now with the recent new long term price lows this month another higher momentum reading is being registered.
In addition basis monthly charts THE momentum low (since XOP inception in 2006) was registered WITH the price in Feb 2016 and THIS CURRENT NEW LOW is so far registering a very significant monthly divergence against 2016.
There are NEVER any guarantees that a similar key bottom and large intermediate term rally will arose from this area, however the stage IMO is certainly set. s always DYODD
@@@ Note that I am using weekly CLOSING prices for this analysis