According to my risk summation system the days this week with the highest risk of a turn or acceleration of the current trend are Tuesday the 26th of May and to a much lesser degree Thursday the 28th.
Given how futures are flying this morning, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that today's risk window is in all likelihood going to be an upside acceleration event from the low which formed during the morning of the Friday the 22nd risk window. The only question is whether it's a one day wonder like the acceleration event during last Monday the 18th's risk window, or if it has some staying power. As I mentioned in a post yesterday, the 200 day moving average looms just overhead beckoning the market higher, so just maybe it won't disappoint.
I've pretty much thrown in the towel on the long cycle bottom which I have been forecasting for the next couple of weeks. I guess the big rush down in late March drained the cycle of its chee. I suppose the next downside risks are the size and timing of the second wave of the bug and if the FED see's the party's getting out of hand and tries to pull the punch bowl. Earnings this year are a disaster, but everyone knows that and with zero interest rates they don't matter anyway since everyone's now just looking out into 2021 with rose tinted glasses.
Regards,
Douglas
