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DBA Not ready for a move


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#1 linrom1

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Posted 09 June 2020 - 02:15 PM

 

This thing is hardly moving, in fact, major ag commodities such as wheat, corn and soybeans are declining. The fund is trading above its NAV and looks like it needs to complete wave II down.


Edited by linrom1, 09 June 2020 - 02:16 PM.


#2 dougie

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Posted 09 June 2020 - 03:59 PM

your A can easily be a ii



#3 senorBS

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Posted 09 June 2020 - 07:44 PM

your A can easily be a ii

Si Dougie, either possibility is valid, key is its 5 up from the low IMO and I would just add a little more if we did do that "possible" c down

 

Senor



#4 linrom1

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Posted 09 June 2020 - 11:55 PM

your A can easily be a ii

It could be? But this is looking like dead money for intermediate future. I looked at all the commodity charts of this fund's holdings and they are all awful: stuck in bottom range for last two years, with none showing any price momentum. I don't know anything about about ag commodities, but they all are trading sideways in lower ranges.

 

There must be a better way to benefit from food inflation. DBA is crap like USO and just loses premium and keeps declining.



#5 dharma

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Posted 11 June 2020 - 10:41 AM

my guess is it will move , but when, i put on a starter , so it has my attention, but i am not ready to add yet. as we get into summer

and we start to get ideas of the size of the crops , then it will start to take shape. there is no question in my mind that food  will be a 

major participant in the flight to stuff.  i also like water. and oil . 

call it dead money , but what it is , is money. it is real.  where what you call money is printed as needed , not produced 

there is going to be a major shift in money . its getting w/the budding trend  or being w/the old guard 

dharma



#6 linrom1

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Posted 15 June 2020 - 09:53 AM

 

It looks safe to buy, that wave ii could be finished?



#7 flyers&divers

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Posted 17 June 2020 - 01:10 PM

This won't be a crowded trade for a while.

I have a few 80 D leaps and keep writing nearby 14 calls against them.

Too bad they don't have weeklies.

 

F&D


"Successful trading is more about Sun Tzu then Elliott." F&D

#8 linrom1

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Posted 10 July 2020 - 11:33 AM

 

Has this even bottomed? It's definitely an ending diagonal, but is it finished?Unbelievable that ag commodities can't get a bid?


Edited by linrom1, 10 July 2020 - 11:34 AM.


#9 linrom1

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Posted 11 July 2020 - 10:15 AM

 

I am not sure if this count is correct, but this shows DEFLATION. Farmers are going bankrupt, makes no sense? This is a monthly chart folks and we have now 7 monthly red closes! WTF?


Edited by linrom1, 11 July 2020 - 10:17 AM.


#10 linrom1

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Posted 11 July 2020 - 10:36 AM

 

Maybe like this? Again, I am not sure if this count is correct, but, it looks ominous for farmers. Who is going to produce food? Is this being manipulated by the FED to keep food inflation from exploding?


Edited by linrom1, 11 July 2020 - 10:45 AM.