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WHY I am adding/liking OIL/GAS stocks vs GDX or SPX


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#1 senorBS

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Posted 16 October 2020 - 10:36 AM

I am a market whore, I am in the markets to make money, whether its Gold/Miners, oil/gas stocks, other sectors. Because of my long and intermediate term RATIO ANALYSIS of XOP/GDX and XOP/S&P, and XOP/oil ratios I have been in the past week slowly accumulating oil/gas stocks as I believe in the months/year ahead the ratio analysis suggest they will outperform the GDX and SPX. I now have a similar oil/gas stock position currently as compared to my gold miner position after some shifting this morning, yet I am about 35-40% long (in total) in my accts. I can't forecast when a major turn will occur but the technical/chart action suggests to me that its close and even if it takes a few more months there appears much less risk of the XOP declining much more in respect to GDX or SPX. The ONE big caveat is that they ALL could decline substantially together if the stock market took another big hit like March. In any case my thinking is that having some exposure to oil/gas stocks is now warranted given the historic lows seen in these ratios and technical/chart indications a big turn has a very solid chance to occur in the months/year ahead. Take it FWIW and DYODD


Edited by senorBS, 16 October 2020 - 10:41 AM.


#2 dougie

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Posted 16 October 2020 - 08:02 PM

wow; contrarian!

very interesting and mucho gracias

 

XOP sure looks like an ABC correction done off the big move up from spring lows


Edited by dougie, 16 October 2020 - 08:04 PM.


#3 dougie

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Posted 16 October 2020 - 09:54 PM

 

at the very least this gets a brother leg up....

and maybe much more...

 

War in middle east?



#4 senorBS

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Posted 17 October 2020 - 08:45 AM

wow; contrarian!

very interesting and mucho gracias

 

XOP sure looks like an ABC correction done off the big move up from spring lows

I am not taking large positions in anything right now, just too much uncertainty, but for me the charts suggested a modest position is a decent bet, so I am about 15% long this sector. And I am buying individual stocks as opposed to the XOP, but in the oil/gas stocks world one has to be VERY careful with stock selection as some companies have huge debt and won't make it. I have a few pipe companies for yield, couple larger/mid producers and a couple spec issues. 

 

Senor



#5 linrom1

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Posted 17 October 2020 - 12:27 PM

 

Something like this?



#6 senorBS

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Posted 17 October 2020 - 01:09 PM

 

Something like this?

That's my bullish take that a very large wave pattern ended to the downside earlier this year and once this correction ends (it already may have earlier this month) we have another large leg higher, when I look at the GDX/XOP ratio oil/gas stocks have been absolutely savaged vs miners, technical stuff suggests to me at least that a relief/oversold rally is likely in the months ahead. Just one hombre's opinion and once again only taking light positions here

 

Senor



#7 dougie

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Posted 18 October 2020 - 02:05 PM

One more low?

https://pbs.twimg.co...png&name=medium



#8 senorBS

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Posted 18 October 2020 - 02:13 PM

can't rule out one more low below that early Oct low I'd currently say it is 65/35 against a new low, if we got a new low I'd add

 

Senor



#9 gannman

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Posted 19 October 2020 - 04:12 AM

i like cvx in this sector to accumulate fww


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#10 dougie

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Posted 20 October 2020 - 02:17 PM

well this is constructive