According to my risk summation system, the days this week with higher than average risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Monday the 2nd, Wednesday the 4th and Friday the 6th of November. Based on preliminary calculations, the next large spike in the risk summation occurs on Monday the 9th of November.
The low values of the risk peaks last week fooled me into thinking it would be a low volatility week. The prior large risk peak on Friday the 23rd apparently signalled an important turn down which extended throughout this past week. At least I was right about the turn risk being higher at the beginning and end of the week with a top at the beginning and low happening at the end of the week.
Based on futures trading this morning an acceleration up from the low on Friday may occur today. This would probably break the neckline from below on the double top in the DJIA that I noted in an earlier post switching off the pattern for the time being. The pattern may yet redeem itself depending on the market action as this week unfolds.
Everybody and his brother expects market fireworks this week. The only question is up or down. Given three risk windows this week, it would seem that the answer to that question is yes, both up and down risk is the best bet.
Tomorrow don't forget to heed Chicago Mayor Daley's admonishment to go out and vote early and vote often.
Regards,
Douglas
