SPX short term top possible (eom
Posted 17 November 2020 - 01:53 PM
If SPX 3600 unable to hold this is likely some kind of a top ....................
Posted 18 November 2020 - 06:00 PM
SPX DAILY HURST PROJECTIONS & CYCLES UPDATE
Last December, then also into January of this year, as the SPX was into its topping process, which is a very possible fractal interpretation at this time, the swings were relatively large and the momentum was giving signals that were a bit difficult to trade, as they are doing again at this time.
That said, a very possible fractal interpretation is that wave-b:Y:2 is complete and the SPX is in the process of rolling over into wave-c:Y:2.
OR that wave-a:c:Y:2 has completed, and wave-b of the same degree is in work, and when complete, the SPX will push back upward to new ATHs, with the potential upward target of ~4008 or the UTL ~5000 range.
The first chart is the #Hurst nominal 20-week and 40-week FLDs showing the 20-week projection is already fulfilled, though the 40-week projection from 6.3.20, up at ~4008, is still a work in progress... the closing levels for tomorrow to trigger or negate are on the chart.
The second chart is the SPX daily chart with my take on the smaller nominal Hurst cycles, showing tomorrow is a possible inflection date for the 80-day cycle peak, though as in the previous 40-day cycle peak, it may have come in a few days early... watching.
Posted 18 November 2020 - 11:44 PM
I exited my longs from a few weeks back recently at the new highs. Played out almost exactly as I thought it might. Hard to say here, but looks like, for now, a possible short term high is likely for the spx and djia near the recent highs. Love all the adjectives. Maybe, likely, possibly, etc. I just watch and place the trades at what I feel represents the greatest risk reward. The market changes constantly so there are no guarantees. That said, looks like a possible short for early December taking the markets back to recent lows. We'll see.
On a side note, an out of state work associate passed away from covid yesterday. I remember talking to him about the virus in September. Strange and sad knowing this thing took him down. Not sure if he had underlying conditions. Texas man. As Mark says, take your vitamin D. Keep a positive attitude and stay rested.
Posted 19 November 2020 - 01:33 PM
With small caps also near new ATHs (from yesterday) it's still difficult to see US markets as bearish just yet:
Posted 19 November 2020 - 02:37 PM
Here's an alternate fractal count, if the Feb low was the completion of Wave-2... IMHO, the UTL from the 3.2009 low to the 1.2018 high is the key at this juncture... wave-v = wave-i at about 3900-4000:
Edited by tsharp, 19 November 2020 - 02:40 PM.