As I noted in last week's epistle, the risk windows for a turn in or acceleration of the current market trend this week are today, December the 21st, and Thursday the 24th. Based on the futures tumbling this morning, it appears that today's risk window is an acceleration of the turn down from the top which formed at the open last Friday.
Both of this week's risk window signal values are pretty strong unlike their weak sisters last week on Tuesday and Wednesday which turned out to be late to the party and a dud by just an hour. The turn up from the low for the cash DJIA was in the closing hour on Monday. You could call that a reasonable near miss, but near misses only count when playing horse shoes or hand grenades. I suppose if I were to be entirely generous, I could call Tuesday an acceleration day since it did gap up and put on more than 300 points in the up direction started very late Monday, but that up trend died the very next day, so it was not exactly a very helpful acceleration day.
That never ending rising wedge that I've been droning on about for the last several weeks, may actually have that long awaited break down this morning if the futures continue on their current path giving the market a wedgie, although as I type they are pulling back from the extremely negative readings earlier this morning. Given the unflinching central bank support of the market, some crazy snap back can't be be completely ruled out. In these funny money times, nothing seems out of the question.
Also a month or so ago I postulated that the covid plague might peak in the US near the new moon last week given the timing of Thanksgiving get-togethers. That peak on the chart below is the 11th, just three days before the December new moon. Of all my hare brained predictions, I certainly hope this one continues to work out.
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 21 December 2020 - 09:33 AM.
