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Market Geometry for Long-Term DJIA


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#1 Kimston

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Posted 22 January 2021 - 12:19 AM

I've had a major target around 31,200 - 31,300 on DJIA for about 10 years now. The symmetry looks compelling for a significant top. Went pretty heavily short (hopefully for a multi-week trade) when we popped above 31,200 and will stop out on close above 31,550.

 

DJIA31200.png

 

 



#2 tsharp

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Posted 23 January 2021 - 04:45 PM

I've had a major target around 31,200 - 31,300 on DJIA for about 10 years now. The symmetry looks compelling for a significant top. Went pretty heavily short (hopefully for a multi-week trade) when we popped above 31,200 and will stop out on close above 31,550.

 

DJIA31200.png

 

 

 

Hi Kim,

 

Thanks for sharing your chart and ideas here!  I do think we're getting ST toppy here, though perhaps an IT top from a bit higher.  I do see a difference between the first and second periods on your chart as the first was in the midst of a 13-year bear market cycle, and the second was in the midst of a 26-year bull market cycle, so this period would be more like the second, rather than the first. 

 

I do see the possibility for a sharp and fast decline in 2023-24, to mark the Hurst 18-year cycle trough, perhaps like what happened in 1987, though overall, I see the US markets continuing upward into ~2032.

 

 

SPX-M-01-22-21-LT.jpg



#3 Kimston

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Posted 15 February 2021 - 08:09 PM

I had shorted via call options on DXD. After looking at geometry for SPX, I've decided to move my stop-out plan from close above 31,550 basis cash DJIA to a close above 4050 basis cash SPX. I found 5 projections on SPX that all land in the 3990 to 4012 range. I think closing above 4050 would likely invalidate this target area.