2512 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

lets see if they can jam this pig in the last hr

 

Senor

Looks like the "pig" way be wakin up and snortin a "bit" this mornin, lets see if we can actually sustain and extend a rally here, I remain bullish

 

Senor

[senorBS]

 

lets see if they can jam this pig in the last hr

 

Senor

Looks like the "pig" way be wakin up and snortin a "bit" this mornin, lets see if we can actually sustain and extend a rally here, I remain bullish

 

Senor

 

all right, perhaps today is "jam da pig" day, lookin good IMO, key Q is if the corrective low is in place? not enough info to have confidence yet

 

Senor

[senorBS]

 

Anyone have any thoughts on the divergence between bonds and gold here? I'm thinking it's telling us gold is a major buy here.

Manipulation? hate to say it (I usually don't) but someone IMO wanted this stuff down. I mean yields collapse after all the inflation we've had and strong economy? Dollars soars on lower rates? and Feds jawboning yesterday IMO was garbage talk. I agree with you and to me this looks like a capitulation/panic/washout day. Be interested to see what some of the sentiment stuff looked like today, now 50% long with today's buys

 

Senor

 

LOL Powell after a little perhaps "tougher" talk om inflation last week right back to "dove land" yesterday: 

 

(Bloomberg) “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation had picked up but should move back toward the U.S. central bank’s 2% target once supply imbalances resolve. More from Powell:

FED WON’T RAISE INTEREST RATES PREEMPTIVELY
SEE LABOR SUPPLY, JOB CREATION MOVING UP WELL THIS YEAR
INFLATION EFFECTS FROM REOPENING LARGER THAN EXPECTED
BIG PART OF INFLATION RISE COMES FROM SECTORS REOPENING
FACTORS WEIGHING ON LABOR SUPPLY SHOULD ABATE
INFLATION EFFECTS FROM REOPENING LARGER THAN EXPECTED
SEE FACTORS AFFECTING INFLATION WANING OVER TIME
HARD TO SAY WHEN SUPPLY BOTTLENECKS WILL DISAPPEAR
NO REASON REOPENING PROCESS OUGHT TO LEAVE INFLATION MARK

“Steve Matthews, the (Wall Street Journal) Fed reporter, offered these takeaways, which were almost exactly what traders alarmed by last week’s events would have wanted to read: While Powell didn’t break a lot of new ground, the thrust of his remarks in his prepared text and in the Q&A was quite dovish on monetary policy and supportive of continued aid.”

[senorBS]

Picked this recent Hulbert stuff up on another board - I like how fast sentiment decline from 90th percentile to 14th percentile, we see

 

"Consider the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold market exposure level among a subset of several dozen short-term gold timers. This average now stands at minus 9.7%, which means that the typical short-term gold timer is allocating about 10% of his gold trading portfolio to going short — a bbet that gold will continue to decline. That puts the HGNSI at the 14th percentile in a distribution of all readings since 2000.

As recently as just a couple of weeks ago, as you can see from the chart below, the HGNSI stood at just shy of the 90th percentile of that distribution. That 90th percentile is the threshold that some contrarians use to define the zone of excessive optimism. That’s why, prior to last week’s Fed meeting, the sentiment winds were already blowing in the direction of lower prices (as I alerted you in a May 9 column).
[]

Since then, however, the HGNSI has moved from close to the 90th percentile of the distribution to the 14th. Some may consider that already to be a big enough drop to support a rally; other contrarians may insist on waiting until it drops into the bottom decile — the thrreshold for which is minus 14.8%. Depending on gold’s action this week, that could happen within a matter of days.

Regardless, the key to the extent and duration of gold’s subsequent rally will be a function of how quickly the gold timers turn bullish. If they quickly jump on the bullish bandwagon, then the rally will most likely fizzle out relatively quickly. If instead they stubbornly remain bearish as that rally gains steam, then it has the potential for lasting longer and rising further.

Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com"

[CHAx]

Who saw the 3k contracts blast through in 1 second?  Who are these sellers purposely choosing low volume/liquidity times to sell?  This happened after the Fed last week too.....  Very strange stuff.  Someone/some entity is attempting to push price around or is having a serious liquidity problem.  Im asking myself If an entity wishes to sell 3k contracts, why wouldn't they have done it this morning into the heavy volume buying and collect the best price????  That is some seriously suspicious price action/volume action, as was the selling post Fed after cash markets closed.  

[dougie]

Who saw the 3k contracts blast through in 1 second?  Who are these sellers purposely choosing low volume/liquidity times to sell?  This happened after the Fed last week too.....  Very strange stuff.  Someone/some entity is attempting to push price around or is having a serious liquidity problem.  Im asking myself If an entity wishes to sell 3k contracts, why wouldn't they have done it this morning into the heavy volume buying and collect the best price????  That is some seriously suspicious price action/volume action, as was the selling post Fed after cash markets closed.  

seems to me that there would be good reasons for the Fed to ant to manipulate the real harbingers of inflation

[CHAx]

seems to me that there would be good reasons for the Fed to ant to manipulate the real harbingers of inflation

 

 

 

 

I appreciate that viewpoint, but I have to say I'm just not sure.  Let us suppose for the moment that the Fed sold 3k contracts in attempt to create a panic.... they would be forced to cover their short position when the contract is expiring in 36 days or deliver 300,000 oz of gold to the Comex.  That does not seem likely to me as a best explanation, but in defense of your proposition, I don't know anything for certain either.

[dougie]

UGLY

bear flag GDX

HOW LOW CAN SHE GO?

[linrom1]

UGLY

bear flag GDX

HOW LOW CAN SHE GO?

No buyers!!!!!

[hhh]

Blame the Moon: https://s3.tradingvi.../v/vIK3onje.png(from Breeze.)