2512 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

took some off into the close, went home about 25% long, as always DYODD

 

Senor

[dougie]

how low can she go. i see 1520 poosible by end of year. bounces not withstanding

[crossd]

Hurst update SPX  18 month trough now MAY be ahead of us..go figure...donc

 

[jabat]

Looking For a “Silver” Lining, 09/18/2021

By Avi

Despite the break down this week in the metals complex, silver still has the chance to pull the rest of the market up.  But, overall, I think the metals will become a bit easier at this time. And, to be honest, I feel kinda weird viewing the metals from a bearish bias.  Yet, I have to go with what the market presents, rather than that for which I am hoping.

Now that we have seen a break down as we follow through on the more bearish potential in gold and GDX, all we have to do is continually adjust our resistance levels.  As long as all bounces respect those resistances, then we will continue down lower, and even as deep as the bigger downside targets we have on our larger degree charts.  

However, if we see the market provide us with an impulsive move through resistance, then we can begin to switch gears and assume a shortened pullback has likely completed.   This will be my approach over the coming weeks and months.

But, this brings me back to silver.  Now that we have a lower low in silver, it again has the best opportunity to lead us out of this downtrend.  You see, silver is the clearest chart for the bigger first and second wave set up, which is outlined in its [i][ii] structure.  All I need is a nice and clear 5-wave rally in silver at any point in time now, and I would be quite happy to adopt a more near-term bullish resolution to the silver chart.  And, my suspicion is that the other charts can potentially follow along.

However, the other charts also have much clearer resistance points at this time.

Since GDX did drop to the 30.70 region, 31.50 is now our main resistance point.  You see, in the smaller degree [1][2] structure, GDX has dropped to the 1.236 extension of waves [1][2].  That means that the .764 extension is our main resistance in the 31.20 region.  And, if GDX is able to rally through the .618 extension in the 31.50 region, then that is a strong signal that the full extent of the decline to 21 will become much less likely.  And, if a rally through 31.50 is impulsive in nature, then it becomes more likely that this pullback has run its course.  I will still need to see a continued rally through 32.80 to be more confident of this potential.

But, for now, it means that as long as GDX remains below 31.50 on all bounces, our next downside targets are the 28.50-29.40 region, followed by the 25.70-26.75 region to complete wave [iii] in red.  At that point, I would assume we can see a sizeable bounce back up towards the 30.00-30.70 region in wave [iv].  And, that will be a major test for the market at that time.  At failure to exceed that resistance will make it much more likely that the 21 region can be seen in the coming months.

As far as gold is concerned, well, we clearly broke down below the pivot I outlined this past week, and as long as the market is unable to get back over that pivot, our next target is down in the 1715-1723 region.   This has the exact same issue I outlined above in GDX, as it has a larger target well below the current price.  In fact, GLD suggests we can drop as deep as the 140 region, which would be comparable to the 21 region in the GDX.  But, we are going to take this one step at a time, and follow the Fibonacci Pinball structure to the downside, along with the relevant resistance points it provides to us during the up/down price machinations.  As long as rallies are corrective and are held within resistance, I will continue to look lower. That will apply until such time we see a clear impulsive rally through a resistance, which can then have us switch gears towards a more bullish outlook.  But, for now, bears seem to be in control.

As I noted at the start of this missive, silver still can lead us out of these bearish postures.   You see, silver can still be viewed as a 5th wave in an extended c-wave down for its wave [ii].   But, I will warn you that I cannot take this potential seriously unless I see a CLEAR 5-wave rally structure taking us through 23.90.  So, I will be keeping my eyes on this chart, but cannot entertain a bullish perspective until we begin to see 5-wave rallies take out resistance levels.  I will also be watching the MACD on the 144-minute chart to see if we hold divergence down here to give the bulls a fighting chance.

Overall, the theme is the same.  The bears are now in control, and as long as all bounces are corrective and are contained within the resistance points noted, I will continue to look lower.  I will continue to update those resistance points as we move through the Fibonacci Pinball structures to the downside.

[linrom1]

741vz+

[senorBS]

Finally getting the long expected gen mkt plunge that "possibly" has a lot more to go "IF" a key top might be in place. Gold up and silver down, but silver above overnight lows. Most miner/gold ratios at new lows for entire hug decline since Aug 2020 highs - very oversold and so far more technical divergences. Only thing I did this morning was buy more KL at 40.57 (nice chart point/support area vs daily) as it remains my favorite stock in the entire miner universe and it is UP today and is and has massively outperformed the GDX which made new lows for the yr today (but actually holdin up fairly well today) - KL's low for the yr is 31.72!  It is also by far my largest position. Unless we absolutely crash like March 2020 miners don't looks so bad here and IMO likely lead the way lower, perhaps, just perhaps the BIG surprise here is they actually start outperforming the gen mkt my a good bit, probably dreaming but no one seems to expect that at all. Also, can the FED really taper if this continues? LOL Anyway one IMO has to be careful here but I don't mind holding some select longs, KL is 1/3 of my long position which is about 28% at this time, as always DYODD

 

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 20 September 2021 - 12:40 PM.

[gannman]

i dont believe gld or the miners have much lower to go. 

 

as you said KL is the star in the sector 

 

looking for gdx to bottom not much lower than 29 no matter what the general market does. 

[linrom1]

Finally getting the long expected gen mkt plunge that "possibly" has a lot more to go "IF" a key top might be in place. Gold up and silver down, but silver above overnight lows. Most miner/gold ratios at new lows for entire hug decline since Aug 2020 highs - very oversold and so far more technical divergences. Only thing I did this morning was buy more KL at 40.57 (nice chart point/support area vs daily) as it remains my favorite stock in the entire miner universe and it is UP today and is and has massively outperformed the GDX which made new lows for the yr today (but actually holdin up fairly well today) - KL's low for the yr is 31.72!  It is also by far my largest position. Unless we absolutely crash like March 2020 miners don't looks so bad here and IMO likely lead the way lower, perhaps, just perhaps the BIG surprise here is they actually start outperforming the gen mkt my a good bit, probably dreaming but no one seems to expect that at all. Also, can the FED really taper if this continues? LOL Anyway one IMO has to be careful here but I don't mind holding some select longs, KL is 1/3 of my long position which is about 28% at this time, as always DYODD

 

Senor

It actually "sucks" that market is heading down because it means that relative valuations heading into year-end will favor tech stocks over miners. I was looking forward to buying undervalued miners heading into year-end, but now, perhaps semis will offer better value.

[crossd]

Finally getting the long expected gen mkt plunge that "possibly" has a lot more to go "IF" a key top might be in place. Gold up and silver down, but silver above overnight lows. Most miner/gold ratios at new lows for entire hug decline since Aug 2020 highs - very oversold and so far more technical divergences. Only thing I did this morning was buy more KL at 40.57 (nice chart point/support area vs daily) as it remains my favorite stock in the entire miner universe and it is UP today and is and has massively outperformed the GDX which made new lows for the yr today (but actually holdin up fairly well today) - KL's low for the yr is 31.72!  It is also by far my largest position. Unless we absolutely crash like March 2020 miners don't looks so bad here and IMO likely lead the way lower, perhaps, just perhaps the BIG surprise here is they actually start outperforming the gen mkt my a good bit, probably dreaming but no one seems to expect that at all. Also, can the FED really taper if this continues? LOL Anyway one IMO has to be careful here but I don't mind holding some select longs, KL is 1/3 of my long position which is about 28% at this time, as always DYODD

 

Senor

remem..4 year presidential cycle seasonal..SPX  top Jul'Aug(Sep this time)  low Nov for 2nd yr in the cycle...donc

[senorBS]

took 2/3 of logs off during todays bounce, might go flat by the close, a TRADER is all I am here

 

Senor