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SIGNS of a TOP - Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 07 September 2021 - 08:42 AM

Rested, ready, and roaring... for Q4, statistically the best quarter for me, and also on rare occasions, the worst. 
A losing week to start the month, and this week starts in the red for me. Happens many times before the Q4 big decline starts and then market rallies into end of year and the next January

HUGE SHORT positions, rolling over into DEC PUTS, also the 2 NQ hedge LONGS when most appropriate

Will add a 3rd ES and 3rd NQ HEDGE LONG if it drops 1% from ATHs or around there. 

 

I agree with this:

 

https://thereformedb...signs-of-a-top/

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 07 September 2021 - 08:43 AM

NO, they cannot! 

 

Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?
Sep. 05, 2021 

https://seekingalpha...tember-weakness



#3 LMF

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Posted 07 September 2021 - 08:49 AM

NDX is actually net positive during September months historically when theres no election in November. 13-10 total and 5-3 more recently. No election shenanigans until next year.

#4 dTraderB

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Posted 07 September 2021 - 08:50 AM

 
ZVBuToeP_bigger.jpg
 
Sept underway for #ES_F, one of the 5 months of the year with a negative average return. For a full week, ES has been bouncing between 4545 & 4520s making the trip 4x Another pop left to 4585 as long as 4520 holds. It fails breakdown starts direct with 4480, 4455, 4420 supports
Quote Tweet
 
 
ZVBuToeP_mini.jpg
 
Adam Mancini
 
@AdamMancini4
· Sep 4
Have a great weekend! Only 1 pattern matters in #ES_F and its a textbook channel creating all major highs & lows in 2021. 4700 is next resistance/target, but big hurdle for bulls en route at 4580 Plan next week: Pop there & pullback. Warning though, 4520 fails 1st we sell direct
 
ZVBuToeP_bigger.jpg
 
Sept underway for #ES_F, one of the 5 months of the year with a negative average return. For a full week, ES has been bouncing between 4545 & 4520s making the trip 4x Another pop left to 4585 as long as 4520 holds. It fails breakdown starts direct with 4480, 4455, 4420 supports
Quote Tweet
 
 
ZVBuToeP_mini.jpg
 
Adam Mancini
 
@AdamMancini4
· Sep 4
Have a great weekend! Only 1 pattern matters in #ES_F and its a textbook channel creating all major highs & lows in 2021. 4700 is next resistance/target, but big hurdle for bulls en route at 4580 Plan next week: Pop there & pullback. Warning though, 4520 fails 1st we sell direct


#5 redfoliage2

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Posted 07 September 2021 - 09:45 AM

Still too early for the Top as It totally depends on what/how the Fed will say/do at the Sept 21 meeting.  Before that dips will be bought as usual regardless what the Street manipulators are upgrading / downgrading to serve their purposes  ..........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 07 September 2021 - 09:50 AM.


#6 12SPX

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Posted 07 September 2021 - 10:23 AM

Gonna be a fun week!!  Ready for my profit stop to be hit were so close today but will sell higher if it does go, average short 4509 now.  Market needs some volatility to keep it decently healthy but so overbought now and those calls just don't wanna give up that premium!! 



#7 gm_general

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Posted 08 September 2021 - 07:56 AM

Here is an interesting chart

 

Market-Cap-PS-Ratio.png?itok=vVGx8sVW



#8 12SPX

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Posted 08 September 2021 - 07:56 AM

Yay, as I've said before I love pajama traders.  Put in a buyback overnight at 4500 as I figured they would want to protect that level!!  Got a very nice 9 point profit.  Very nice payout after a two week build.  Had my short fills to go back in with an average of 4515 now!! 



#9 12SPX

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Posted 08 September 2021 - 08:47 AM

As were getting close to expiration decided to buy back my Sept 4500 calls for only a $3 profit but just in case there is a bounce back.  For now continue to hold the sold Sept 4550 calls and of course the 4600 calls....



#10 12SPX

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Posted 08 September 2021 - 09:35 AM

Hmmmm let the first one go, but profit stop now 4510, will sell higher for a new build......