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Risk Windows for the Week of September 13th


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 11 September 2021 - 02:34 PM

According to my risk summation system, the day this coming week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Friday September 17th.  Tuesday September 14th has a very low number of risk turns.  As I've noted in the past, for some strange reason days with very low values also have marked turns, so it probably should be added to the risk window list for the week.

 

Last week's Tuesday risk window marked a sharp turn down in the DJIA, and the Friday risk window may have marked a low or an acceleration down day depending on the action this coming Monday the 13th.  

FGOZkSx.png

 

My trading system started screaming buy this past Friday.  I've had to substantially fudge the calculations in the trading system in this relentless bull run to prevent missing the quick reversals from any even slightly oversold condition.  I am fully aware that this over-optimization is going to bite me in the rear end whenever a real down trend sets in, so I see the action which will take place this coming week as a real test of this fiddling that I have done.  My gut tells me that the chickens may finally be coming home to roost for my calculation manipulation sins.

 

Regards,

Douglas 

 

 



#2 LMF

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Posted 11 September 2021 - 04:09 PM

Friday was filling the recent TQQQ gap on the weekly chart. They always have to do that, no matter how ugly it looks. This coming week is historically quite favorable on the NDX.

#3 slupert

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Posted 11 September 2021 - 04:57 PM

Its all about Tuesdays data, but I'm looking for about 30 handles lower on the SPX before that. Nothing goes straight down (JMHO)



#4 Douglas

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Posted 11 September 2021 - 06:07 PM

Slupert, I saw your comment responding to one of Don's notes concerning a low you have been noticing near the third Friday of the last several months possibly relating to a 21 day cycle.  Since I am a cycle junky, this caught my eye.   The third Friday of the month is one of risk windows that I add in my summation since it is when options expire.  I also track a 21 day (Fibonacci) mirror cycle which stretches from 19 to 23 days which has lately been bottoming near these Fridays.   The next one is this coming Friday the 17th, this week's risk window total winner. 

 

I assume the Tuesday data you are referring to is the inflation report, or as I like to call it, BLS BS.  The inflation rate has gotten so bad that even the super fudgers at the BLS can't make a silk purse out these pigs' ears.  At some point reality matters.   

 

Regards,

Douglas  



#5 LMF

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Posted 13 September 2021 - 12:55 PM

One other observation is bonds are most likely toast as long as TLT is stuck below 150.43. Thats the breakdown point after the 2020 ATH. I think inflation wins this time.

#6 Douglas

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Posted 13 September 2021 - 04:27 PM

LMF, I think that the real fun in TLT may start below the neckline in the head and shoulders pattern shown below.  All the FED's horses and all the FED's men won't be able to put humpty dumpty interest rates back together again below that line.  Just toast? With inflation absolutely raging and Congress chewing at the bit to spend another 4.5 trillion, TLT may become black burnt toast, too far gone to even scrape.   And let's not forget the fiscal cliff coming soon to a debt ceiling denying Congress near you.

 

6dO2wdq.png

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 13 September 2021 - 04:30 PM.


#7 linrom1

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Posted 13 September 2021 - 08:27 PM

LMF, I think that the real fun in TLT may start below the neckline in the head and shoulders pattern shown below.  All the FED's horses and all the FED's men won't be able to put humpty dumpty interest rates back together again below that line.  Just toast? With inflation absolutely raging and Congress chewing at the bit to spend another 4.5 trillion, TLT may become black burnt toast, too far gone to even scrape.   And let's not forget the fiscal cliff coming soon to a debt ceiling denying Congress near you.

 

6dO2wdq.png

 

Regards,

Douglas

Doug,

 

What I understand about HS patterns is that the right shoulder needs to be below the left shoulder and there needs to be time symmetry between the shoulders for it to be valid pattern.

 

Regards,



#8 LMF

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Posted 13 September 2021 - 11:08 PM

The top formation looks picture perfect like the computer is running it on $USB. This has been a runup out the top of the parabolic channel, and then a failure back inside channel. The 150.43 bust on TLT is exact. It has to regain that level or its headed lower.

Edited by LMF, 13 September 2021 - 11:10 PM.