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Risk Window for the Week of September the 27th


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 25 September 2021 - 11:14 AM

According to my risk summation system, the day next week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA  is Friday October the 1st.  The following Monday the 4th is also a risk window.  I'm not sure if the October 1st and 4th risk events are one somewhat wide risk window or if they are two separate risk windows.  Hopefully the market action a little closer to the end of this coming week will clear this up.   

 

This past week the Monday the 20th risk window tagged a violent day and the low for the week.  The jury is still out on the Friday the 24th  risk window which might just turn out to be a lower high of some sort.    The action early this coming week should clarify whether Friday was a dud or a hit, risk window wise. 

 

Anecdotal crazy inflation information:  This past week one of the numerous wood frame beach huts on the sea front in my home town of Lyme Regis which is home to about 3500 souls was sold.  These huts have a floor space of roughly 6 feet by 8 feet and are used as changing rooms, for storing children's beach toys and as retreats from the often inclement English sea side weather.  They don't have electrical or gas connections.  This beach hut was listed for an eye watering 50,000 pounds, but sold for a mind blowing 90,000 pounds or roughly $120,000 which equates to $2500 per square foot of floor space for a cotton picking hut.  Don't tell me that there's not a bubble of monumental proportions in funny money. 

 

P.S.  You don't actually own the ground that the beach hut sits on.  The city owns that land and charges you a $1000 or so a year in ground rental for the privilege of using their space.  

 

Zxjdu38.png

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 



#2 K Wave

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 08:26 AM

Gap down off what looks to be Super Key pivots in many of the Mega Caps at the close on Friday.

 

If this gap down sticks, could be a wild October.

 

Back above Friday's pivot now, and all clear may be sounded for a few more months.

 

IMO, it is still ALL about the Mega Caps here, so watch them closely over next few days, as they are getting near the cliff edge....especially AMZN and AAPL.



#3 K Wave

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 08:28 AM

10 yr yield right at the key 1.50 level again this AM.

 

If that should get blown out upside...Katy, bar the door on Bonds....



#4 Douglas

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Posted 27 September 2021 - 12:56 PM

K Wave, the rate I'm watching like a hawk right now is the 2 year which has had a high correlation to the FED funds rate.  The 2 year is marching higher right now leaving the FED funds rate behind, so if history is any guide, the FED pumpers, kicking and screaming, at some point will have to relent, shut down their hydraulics  and raise rates.  Soon if today's 2 year auction is any guide.  The FED head in his last Wednesday presser indicated that they plan to wait until 2023 to raise rates, but to badly quote the Bard, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry, especially if that tricky old inflation cat is on the prowl. 

 

eD78qUp.png

 

Regards,

Douglas



#5 K Wave

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Posted 28 September 2021 - 07:48 AM

10 yr gapping 1.50 level this AM...if it accelerates.....then the END of the 40 yr down trend in rates could very well be upon us...

 

And the Mega Caps I keep harping on going to gap down big again today it appears...one these days they are to gap down and just keep on going.....today might be that day....

 

And then there is FDX....total carnage in that one....how much longer until indexes start to follow? 4 month lag might be about right?

 

TNX Weekly

 

tnx.png

 

FDX Weekly

 

fdx.png


Edited by K Wave, 28 September 2021 - 07:49 AM.


#6 K Wave

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Posted 28 September 2021 - 07:55 AM

3 Drives to a Divergent Top is one of the most bearish patterns there is when it confirms.

 

IF AAPL and QQQ take out last weeks low on a closing basis we should have full confirmation...momo crossover already done, just waiting on price to confirm now...

 

and again...these are WEEKLY charts.....

 

AAPL

AAPL.png

 

QQQ

 

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#7 K Wave

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Posted 28 September 2021 - 11:49 AM

Barring a huge rally next 2 days, TQQQ in the process of printing massive bearish engulfing at the top of a huge decade long run....

 

Nothing to see here.....

 

tqqq.png



#8 K Wave

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Posted 28 September 2021 - 11:54 AM

AMZN looking quite suspect as well after Monthly Bearish Engulfing forming, after picture perfect Cherry on top complete with long stem...

 

Nothing to see here....

 

AMZN.png



#9 K Wave

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Posted 28 September 2021 - 11:57 AM

And in addition to reasonably likely 3 Drives to a Divgergent Top on Weekly, AAPL also with monthly Bearish Engulfing forming after huge run to the upside.

 

Again...Nothing to see here....move along please...

 

AAPL.png


Edited by K Wave, 28 September 2021 - 12:03 PM.