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Wave C down or wave 3....


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#1 CLK

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Posted 30 September 2021 - 10:37 PM

...to 3800 or 3000 even?

#2 Douglas

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Posted 01 October 2021 - 02:09 AM

In my very humbling experience, Elliott Wave is more for fun than profit.  So, in that spirit of frivolity, I submit the count below.  There's a clown shoe sized chance that I'm early in the 5,5,5 call for an end to this magical, topless bull market, but the early black cygnet bird gets the worms and then takes Ivermectin which cures the parasitic worms and also prevents him from getting covid which lets him grow into a big, bad black swan, so it's clearly better to be early than late.  Notice, on the bullish side, that I'm just calling this bull market the first (one in a box) in a series of bubbles that ultimately carries the DOW into the 100,000 or so stratosphere. 

eCKD0wY.png

U83VYsg.png

 

Regards and please don't take this seriously,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 01 October 2021 - 02:17 AM.


#3 Douglas

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Posted 01 October 2021 - 02:27 AM

Correction:  Please note that the five in a box on the second plot in my post above should be a one.  The coffee hasn't kicked in yet, so please forgive my drafting error and my goofy Elliott Wave count for that matter.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 fib_1618

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Posted 01 October 2021 - 05:36 AM

eCKD0wY.png

 

On a cursory view, 4th waves can not overlap second waves as you have for the March 2020 crash. The sequence would be more consistent to a corrective irregular flat with wave A from February 2018 to December 2018, wave B at the top of February of 2020 (which would be about 1.382 times the (price) length of wave A), and then the infamous wave C down (a little more than 1.618 times the distance of wave A with an emotional overthrow added) to finish off the series...with the background sentiment on whether the United States would continue to exist which are powerful sentiment lows.

 

Of course, others might have an alternate view! yes.gif

 

Fib


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#5 Douglas

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Posted 01 October 2021 - 07:38 AM

If I fudge things around like most of these so called Elliott experts by making the first hump out of the low the circle 1, then the 2020 low doesn't overlap it.  I know it's a stretch, but if liars didn't figure, how could the figures possibly be made to lie?  I'm sure the Merck news this morning on a pill for covid probably trumps all of this and sets the stage for a big rally into the weekend right in my risk window.  If this good news holds water, the DOW will probably be at record highs next week making nonsense out of all of this bearishness.  

 

kPOCTPq.png

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 01 October 2021 - 07:42 AM.


#6 LMF

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Posted 01 October 2021 - 07:50 AM

The recent ATHs on NDX on September 2 are not even close to being ugly enough. This is based on the number of SPX stocks above the 200 day when we get to the ATHs. Better ATHs being more ugly internally.

#7 CLK

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Posted 01 October 2021 - 09:34 AM

There is no institutional buying,
only selling, they use globex to set up the next sell.

#8 fib_1618

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Posted 01 October 2021 - 10:33 AM

If I fudge things around like most of these so called Elliott experts by making the first hump out of the low the circle 1, then the 2020 low doesn't overlap it.  I know it's a stretch, but if liars didn't figure, how could the figures possibly be made to lie?  I'm sure the Merck news this morning on a pill for covid probably trumps all of this and sets the stage for a big rally into the weekend right in my risk window.  If this good news holds water, the DOW will probably be at record highs next week making nonsense out of all of this bearishness.  

 

kPOCTPq.png

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

Besides the overlap rule, you also have the rule of alternation and the rule of equality to help determine both the count and, more importantly, the degree of trend.

 

So...if wave 2 is a flat, then wave 4 must be a zigzag...and if wave 2 is a zigzag (which happens over 80% of the time), then wave 4 is a regular or irregular flat.

 

Additionally, wave 4 is never longer in time than wave 2...it's usually .382% to 50% of the time taken for the 2nd wave sequence to provide balance.

 

Then you have the trend of both breadth and volume to help out in determining the most probable or primary count.

 

For example, all of the breadth and volume MCO's are currently showing bullish divergences against their price charts with the exception of both the S&P 400 and S&P 600 which are showing a lessening of selling pressure compared to that of the August 20th sell off. So if this going to be a 3rd wave down as CLK suggests, these same divergences will need to be broken hard in order for this to happen. If this is a wave C (which is more likely given the current internal divergences), then these same divergences suggests a reversal to the upside is imminent when the correctional pattern is fully completed (which could be happening as I write this).

 

All in a perfect Elliott world, of course.

 

For those interested, you can find a primer on Elliott Wave analysis by clicking the following link: https://tinyurl.com/yjafg2rp

 

Fib


Edited by fib_1618, 01 October 2021 - 10:35 AM.

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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