and the xlf has put in a major top imho
Posted 04 October 2021 - 11:54 AM
If so, what's your downside target? The ones I see are in the plot below. The dark blue are pivots and gap supports, the light blue are trend line supports and the red are Fibonacci levels from the March 2020 low. The gap fill which almost lines up with 61.8% Fib retracement is nice, but sure is pessimistic. The 38% which lines up with the 2020 high is a little less severe. How much of a "major top" are you thinking?
Edited by Douglas, 04 October 2021 - 11:56 AM.
Posted 04 October 2021 - 03:37 PM
I see rock solid support at 18. Beyond that I have not a clue.
Edited by pdx5, 04 October 2021 - 03:37 PM.
Posted 04 October 2021 - 03:52 PM
Assuming a serious/scary correction is beginning, here are my simplistic forecasts (as of today) for the broader markets. Regarding the chart posted earlier ending at 3940, a couple items raise doubts. I would expect the low of 9/20 to mark the 1st leg down rather than the closing price, and Friday's retrace of the 4354 level (in my mind) supports that decision.
The PPO and it's signal line are below zero, hinting that now may not be the ideal time to go long. Also, the character of the RSI may have shifted from residing predominately above 50 to predominately below.
All bets are off in the event of a so-called black swan such as ordnance raining down on Taiwan.
Posted 04 October 2021 - 04:12 PM
first target is the 200 dma around 28.5 then we will see what happens