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Risk Windows for the Week of November 1st and a Fearsome Lepus


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 30 October 2021 - 06:38 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days next week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Wednesday November 3rd and Friday the 5th with the signal for Friday being the stronger of the two.

 

Last week the Wednesday risk window tagged the low for the week, but the Friday risk window appears to have been a dud targeting just an ordinary, garden variety day unless the DJIA turns down immediately Monday morning making Friday an important high.  So being generous, it was at best a mixed week for the risk summation system.

 

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The Joe Manchin, Joe Biden matchup is starting to remind me of the misadventures of the knights  in the Monty Python and the Holy Grail movie.  The underestimated cuddly rabbit mows down the tinned covered crusaders.  The knights are no match for the fearsome Lepus.    

 

https://www.google.c...jEJl2k31fqvvB7K

 

For the FED to seriously taper, I suspect that they will want to see a large stimulus from Congress to give them cover.  This week would appear to be pivotal on both the FED and Congressional fronts.

 

This week also contains a long cycle high risk window that I mentioned in previous posts, but unless something with the above noted Bills goes very pear shaped, it's hard to see how this risk window will amount to anything this time around.

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 30 October 2021 - 06:47 AM.


#2 RadioHead

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Posted 31 October 2021 - 02:31 AM

"the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Wednesday November 3rd and Friday the 5th"  

 

Dude, What the hell does this mean? What do you do with this so called information? Seriously brother, this is not facebook. As a trader to trader, could you explain to me what you just posted and why you just posted it?

 

Look at my posts in the past. I actually post trades or recommendations. This is a puzzle, which has no solution.



#3 bigtrader

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Posted 31 October 2021 - 11:53 AM

In fact this info adds clarity to the puzzle, when you understand what turn dates are.


No longer interested in debating with IGNORANT people.


#4 Douglas

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Posted 31 October 2021 - 05:37 PM

RadioHead, the risk window dates are just what it says on the box, an attempt to identify days each week with the highest risk of a turn in the current trend or an acceleration of the current trend in the hourly plot of the DJIA.    

 

I determine the risk windows by adding all the cycles and turn risks that I can identify based on my forty years of reading technical analysis articles, web posts, books, etc.   Most of them everyone watches like option expirations, FED announcements, etc.  That's why they work, because so many folks pay attention to them.  Every weekend I compile an EXCEL spreadsheet with every one of these type events, cycles, etc. that I have found to arrive at a total for each day of the coming week.  The risk windows don't always tag a turn or acceleration, but they do often enough that I take the time to do the calculations. 

 

To get to your key question, what can you do with this information.  Let's take last week as an example.  Going into last Wednesday's risk window, the hourly trend was down since there was an hourly bar completely below the trend line at the end of day on Tuesday. Because of the Wednesday risk window, you would not have sold the trend line break at the end of the day on Tuesday because you would be expecting a turn in the trend the very next day on Wednesday.  So in the Wednesday risk window you are on the lookout for a low.  A possible trade would have been to buy the close on Wednesday since it was the low of the day with a tight stop at the previous low shown by the red line.  A more conservative approach might have been to wait until the open on Thursday to buy which confirmed the Wednesday close low but would have given up some of the potential gain.  More risk, more gain.    In last Friday's risk window you are expecting a high so it would have been reasonable to sell near the close.  Alternately you could hold over the weekend until this coming Monday morning just to see if the trend extended a bit more.  Again taking more risk for more gain. You don't need the risk windows.  You could just use the trend lines to trade, but adding the risk windows increases the odds that the turn is valid and tells you when to expect them.  

 

 

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Sorry for such a long response, but it was a reasonable question that you asked so I thought that I would take the time to properly answer it.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#5 RadioHead

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Posted 01 November 2021 - 03:31 PM

Thanks Douglas. Now it makes more sense.