Jump to content



Photo

Risk Windows for the Week of November 8th and Stainless Steel


  • Please log in to reply
4 replies to this topic

#1 Douglas

Douglas

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,349 posts

Posted 06 November 2021 - 04:41 PM

According to my risk summation system, the days with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA  are Monday the 8th, Wednesday the 10th and Friday the 12th.  Maybe so many risk windows means next week will be a whipsaw affair consolidating this past weeks gains, or maybe a little sell the news on the infrastructure bill passage then buy the dip as always, who knows.  

 

Last week's Wednesday risk window started out looking like the start of the long awaited correction, but just about the time the bears put on the second record at the party, the bulls came storming back in turning the risk window into a dud.  In the Friday risk window the bull party cranked it up a notch with a morning gap and rally, so I guess one could call that an acceleration day, but the bulls went back out to pasture late in the morning although they didn't fill the morning gap.  Given the dull afternoon, I think Friday should also probably  be chalked up as a dud wrapping up an 0 for 2 crappy week for the system.  

 

QdL7l0e.png

 

The long cycle key risk window that I mentioned last week also was a no show.  Shorts expecting this widely followed risk window probably provided a lot of the fuel for the short squeeze rally.  

 

I saw more evidence of accelerating inflation this past week.  I was trying to buy some stainless steel on the web and saw two prices for the exact same product listed by a manufacturer on two sites.  When I called the manufacturer to find out if the lower one was correct, they told me they were having to change prices so often that they had just not caught up with all their sites.  It reminded me of the story I read about Weimar Republic inflation where restaurants wouldn't put the price of meals on menus because the price changed so fast that it could cost more by the time you finished desert.  It was eat quick or pay more.  It's not that bad yet, but I did hurry up and buy that stainless.  

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 LMF

LMF

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 789 posts

Posted 07 November 2021 - 02:03 PM

The ichimoku cloud under the NDX changes green to red starting next week thru the end of the month.  They often run a pullback in that zone at some point  Right now easy to see the 20 day EMA or the early September highs on TQQQ.  The recent NDX ATHs are OK based on SPX stocks above the 200 day MA.  The last time I saw that go in the ditch was the Aug 2020 highs, followed by several months of consolidation back then.

 

Lee


Edited by LMF, 07 November 2021 - 02:03 PM.


#3 Douglas

Douglas

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,349 posts

Posted 07 November 2021 - 03:57 PM

LMF, I've never used ichimoku cloud plots.  As close to Japanese as I get is candle sticks, and Friday's in the DJIA was a doozy.  Since you mentioned them, I went to Investopedia and learned the following:

 

1) Price rising above a green cloud, good.

2) Price falling below a red cloud, bad.

3) The cloud can be support or resistance if price is above/below it.

4) Buy if the conversion line rises above the base line and price is above the cloud.  

5) Sell if the conversion line drops back below the base line.

 

Do you have other uses, or modifications to the above?  To quote the bronze Emil Faber from the beginning of Animal House, "Knowledge is good".  

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 07 November 2021 - 04:00 PM.


#4 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,382 posts

Posted 07 November 2021 - 04:22 PM

Watch Apple next few days...lagging badly out of the hole here....

 

If it starts trading back below 150, could be a canary warning sign....

Back above 152 again, it probably goes full parabolic bubble mode as 3 Drive top setup on weekly would then get blown out....



#5 LMF

LMF

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 789 posts

Posted 07 November 2021 - 04:40 PM

I only use the cloud color part of it in my analysis. Above a red cloud is likely a good window for a healthy pullback. Not a guarantee, but it tends to happen.