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Risk Windows & I Called the Top, but It Didn't Answer the Phone


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 20 November 2021 - 05:44 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days next week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Wednesday November 24th and Friday the 26th.  It also appears that Monday the 29th of the following week is a risk window, so these three adjacent windows may just be forming one larger window.  Whether they belong together should become clearer closer to the end of next week. 

 

Last week's Monday risk window appears to have been a dud missing the high by a day and Friday's too unless the DJIA continues the move up this coming Monday that began about midday yesterday.  

 

K85YDf2.png

 

Top calling has been hazardous to your bank account until just very recently.  I'm as guilty as my others thinking the latest divergences among the indexes, momentum, etc. signal that the end is nigh.   My FED loose/tight indicator shown below is still above zero, so it seems that the FED funny money is still flowing like honey.  I suppose until that largesse dries up, calling the top will just get a busy signal. 

 

2UuLouD.png

 

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 Iblayz

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Posted 21 November 2021 - 03:09 PM

I Called the Top, but It Didn't Answer the Phone

 

 

Don't feel bad. Many of us over time have been ignored in much the same manner.



#3 Douglas

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Posted 24 November 2021 - 12:38 PM

Well, in the spirit of, if you can't predict correctly, at least predict frequently, the plot below shows a half baked Elliott Wave count in the hourly DJIA future pointing to November 8th as an important top and maybe this coming Friday the 26th or Monday the 29th as a low.  This, of course, depends on the current little yellow triangle under development behaving itself.  If not, well, that's why I always do Elliott Wave counts in pencil on my charts.  The eraser is the most valuable Elliott Wave counting tool.  My other excuse for posting this is that it points down from today, a risk window, into the Friday/Monday the 26th/29th turn risk window which I noted in the first post in this string.  Just don't forget that foresight is not my strong suit in Elliott Wave.  I'm a lot better at hindsight. 

  q7dKGUn.png

 

Regards & Have a Happy Turkey Day,

Douglas



#4 Douglas

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Posted 26 November 2021 - 10:54 AM

Well, my EWave DJIA futures count yellow triangle above was violated to the upside, but not far enough to scrap the basic count.  It may have only changed the 4 into an a,b,c affair instead of a triangle which peaked at about 35900.    IF, and that's a big "if", my count is still more or less correct, in that the fifth wave only is under development, it should complete not too far below where the DJIA futures are currently trading at.  The following shows nearby targets for it to complete in the cash market: 1) 61.8% retrace and internal blue trend line at ~34,740   2) Gap measured move and 200 SMA at ~34,300.

 

vDzozgj.png

 

If my count in the note above is complete crap, which is a good bet, a bad alternative count (alternative counts are EWavers second favorite tool right after erasers) would be the count shown below in the cash market with much lower final 5th wave targets.  The PPT by now should be in full buy the dip mode, so I still expect a low of some sort during this Friday the 26th to Monday the 29th risk window.

 

pbnbRRy.png

 

Regards,

Douglas