6 replies to this topic

[steadyquest]

Postulating that (1) the market is in a protracted decline and (2) fundamentals matter, and (3) the fundamental backdrop of the decline is the military action in Ukraine.

 

Each of the following bear counts is derived entirely, inluding ceiling, from the opening and closing prices of the 2/24 'war candle'.  Seems reasonable, what with Russia being scapegoat of the moment for our economic woes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This one threw me at first, but the results don't seem unreasonable

 

 

Am almost believing these are real counts.  If it were true that the war candles presage future prices, what effect would the act of publishing this information have on those future prices?

[steadyquest]

This is a fun one

 

 

[gannman]

jeremy grantham thinks the sp is going to 2500 fwiw i wouldnt doubt it 

[steadyquest]

This ones even more funner

 

 

[pdx5]

jeremy grantham thinks the sp is going to 2500 fwiw i wouldnt doubt it 

QUESTION IS WHEN? 

[MDurkin]

 

jeremy grantham thinks the sp is going to 2500 fwiw i wouldnt doubt it 

QUESTION IS WHEN? 

 

 

One year ago

 

 

One month ago.

[steadyquest]

That candle is not messing around.  With GLD, using the same formula and the same bear count (why? - don't ask me) it places the ceiling floor to within 0.17% of a candle stem and nails a candle wick to within 0.01% at the 1.75 level.  It suggest potential for another 13% above today's price.  I have no clue as to when.  If the market decline progresses past the 2.33 level I would expect a washout event into and possibly beneath the 3.5 level.