289 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

What an insane market, on edge, but the last few minutes on Friday swung it to the BULLS! 

 

"... The current Fed interest rate cycle may more closely resemble 1994 when the Fed aggressively hiked rates from 3% to 6%. Similar to now, back then stock prices swung wildly throughout the year to eventually finish the year flattish.

If Things Are So Bad, Why Are Prices Going Up?

In the face of such horrible and scary headlines, how can prices still go up? The short answer is that companies are making money hand over fist and the economy remains strong (3.6% unemployment rate; record 11.3m job openings; 3% forecasted growth in 2022 GDP) in a post-COVID recovery world, where consumers remain financially healthy and are now looking to spend their shelter-in-place savings on vacations, houses, and cars (all healthy industries).

Not only are corporate profits at record levels, they are also expected to grow at a healthy rate (+10% in 2022, +10% in 2023) after mind-boggling growth of +50% in 2021 (see chart below)..."
https://investingcaf...d-ukraine-pain/

[dTraderB]

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

·

21m

 

Im looking higher in #ES_F 1st, but when we do get bear market, the nature of downtrends (characterized by violent short squeezes) means most "bears" will struggle to profit 2008s bear saw 9+ rallies over 8% (some > 20% lasting weeks). Bull or bear *must* trade 1 leg at a time

 

 

Apr 2

 

Have a great weekend! For 2nd week in a row, #ES_F closed above its 200dma & Its now April: Most bullish month of year seasonally, 1st week particularly Plan Next Week: Bulls want to build a base above 4500-4480 (200dma), which sets up 4680 next. 4475 fails, we drop fast to 4410

 

Apr 2

 

Have a great weekend! For 2nd week in a row, #ES_F closed above its 200dma & Its now April: Most bullish month of year seasonally, 1st week particularly Plan Next Week: Bulls want to build a base above 4500-4480 (200dma), which sets up 4680 next. 4475 fails, we drop fast to 4410

[dTraderB]

 

Tom McClellan

 

@McClellanOsc

·

Apr 1

 

And all it took to do that was zero interest rates, and $5.8 trillion of new debt (just in the last 2 years). We all need to ask every politician: "What's your plan for paying back all of that debt?"

Quote Tweet

 

Kelly Evans

 

@KellyCNBC

· Apr 1

and it's not just bc of omicron we've averaged +500k jobs since last May which is WAY higher than we saw at similar junctures of the last several cycles twitter.com/funwithnumberz…

 

 

 

 

Edited by dTraderB, 03 April 2022 - 04:37 PM.

[dTraderB]

Levitating up there, seems as if the easiest path is DOWN!

 

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

informative:

Put/Call Ratio Range Shift

 

 

When the market changes its mood, indicators can sometimes change theirs to match.  That is the message of this week’s chart.

Traders and analysts have been watching the Put/Call Ratio ever since the late Martin Zweig first called attention to it decades ago.  In his 1986 book Winning On Wall Street, Zweig described his research in the 1960s, digging through figures from the Securities and Exchange Commission going back as far as WWII, and noticing that “…when options investors got too optimistic - - buying lots of calls and shunning puts - - the stock market was generally heading for trouble.  The reverse was also true.”

The persistent problem over the years has been in determining what constitutes “high” and “low” readings for the Put/Call Ratio.  This task is best done in retrospect, but we have to analyze and trade in realtime.  And that can be hard.

https://www.mcoscill...io_range_shift/

[dTraderB]

This could be an accurate reflection of traders' bias now: who knows, either way, up or down, 50/50

 

 

 

Helene Meisler

@hmeisler

 

Saturday Poll The next 100 points in the S&P?

•  

  UP

  50.3%
•  

  DOWN

  49.7%

3,312 votes·

Final resultsHelene Meisler

@hmeisler

 

Saturday Poll The next 100 points in the S&P?

•  

  UP

  50.3%
•  

  DOWN

  49.7%

3,312 votes·Final results

[dTraderB]

APRIL first 2 weeks seasonally bulllish but is this a normal year ? war? 

 

https://realinvestme...the-bulls-alive

 

That window dressing rally was quite strong and pushed the market into extreme overbought territory.

Technically, the pullback on Thursday and Friday was healthy as it began to reverse the more extreme overbought conditions. However, there is more work to do before a better entry point is available.

If the market can hold support at the 200-dma, or even the 50-dma just below, then the market could make another rally attempt later this month. If not, then the rally was reflexive, short-covering, and will retest lows.

However, be careful getting too bearish. As we will discuss momentarily, April tends to be a historically strong month of the year. Notably, negative sentiment has improved and other indicators are suggesting a short-term bottom may be in. To wit:

“Over the past few weeks, we’ve looked at various thrusts underlying some of the impressive moves in major indexes. Among them is the momentum underlying the S&P 500, with the McClellan Oscillator for the S&P cycling from below -100 to above +100.

This is only the 3rd time the indicator has made such an extreme round trip over the past 5 years. The other two coincided with significant bottoms.” – Sentiment Trader

[12SPX]

Now there's one thing about not going into the weekend with trades on and that is you get lazy, why get up lol!!  Oh and of course I did have my pajama traders trying to get some rogue trades but didn't fill lol.  Funny thing, I was going to go long at 4530 but the market never dipped back so didn't get that one but after readings d's great data I'd rather play the short side this morning.  Market does remain a bit overbought and actual option prices still indicate to much bullishness out there, sooooo,,,,, as he says and I've been saying for awhile now,,,its a sideways we will go.....

[12SPX]

Ok, starting my short build at 4545 and will just add to it after the cash open....

[12SPX]

and bam, profit stop 4544