The latest video submission by the Sentient Trader on youtube contains an interesting way to determine if a bear or bull market is developing. If the next two major cycles projected for the SPX in mid-May and mid to late July are rising, it would appear to be a bull market and if they are falling, it would appear to be a bear market. The approach is discussed starting at about the 11:45 minute mark in the video in this link: Turning Bearish? - Hurst Cycles Market Update - 25 April 2022 - YouTube . This would appear to be a more sophisticated approach to determining a bear or bull trend than my two lines in the sand that I posted in this week's risk window update note. Of course, if market prices really start running up or down, you probably won't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.