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AAII Chart. Near a Record?


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 28 April 2022 - 11:25 AM

AAII04-28-22LT.jpg

 

The Bull/Bear is at 0.28. We haven't been that low since the 2009 low, and not much lower then. I'm not clear that that wasn't the record.

That's pretty wild.

 

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#2 andr99

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Posted 28 April 2022 - 01:53 PM

I' ve got a problem in considering the coming bounce anything more that a short term relief counter trend rally........this :

 

https://i.postimg.cc...vTWjq/daxlt.png

 

it's the dax and the chart is in a weekly time frame.......that damned indicator is slow to move and there' s a lot of space below........my final traget is around 9000-9500 late this year 

 

I cannot imagine Europe not following America......should America go up, Europe would follow, but sincerely the dax doesn' t look like it wants to go up  


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#3 andr99

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Posted 28 April 2022 - 03:02 PM

in any case when the bottom is in  for the dax.....a multi year rally should follow...with interesting multiples in the right stocks

 

final downside target to watch closely, because it might be 10500 or 11000........too soon to say now any target, but there is space downside imo. The IT drop is not over and so should be for America


Edited by andr99, 28 April 2022 - 03:08 PM.

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#4 andr99

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Posted 28 April 2022 - 03:31 PM

Would like to know what others think........where are we ? close to the bottom or still away ? it is important to form a correct idea and the more the inputs, the best we can get from this site......   


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#5 skott

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Posted 28 April 2022 - 05:02 PM

There is an awful lot of pessimism out there. I missed my QQQ short reentry at 370 due to listening to Avi Gilburt. CRUD. Stocks can do the craziest things. I'm almost 100% long gold stocks and looking for more entry points.


Edited by skott, 28 April 2022 - 06:30 PM.


#6 kaiser soze

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Posted 28 April 2022 - 11:42 PM

There is an awful lot of pessimism out there. I missed my QQQ short reentry at 370 due to listening to Avi Gilburt. CRUD. Stocks can do the craziest things. I'm almost 100% long gold stocks and looking for more entry points.

 

Market action does not jibe with extreme pessimism.  Every alternate trading day, there is a huge rally in the Qs and Semis that gives tech investors better prices to sell into. I suspect foreign investors and a section of retail investors are buying every dip.  Foreign investors like US stocks in a rising dollar environment plus the US is relatively insulated from high natural gas prices.  Retail seems to be buying because they simply cannot believe the low prices their favorite tech stocks are trading at.  Many (most?) mutual funds rebalanced away from growth into value a while ago. Major hedge funds appear to be still long large cap tech but they appear to be shorting smaller tech names as a hedge and also gradually liquidating their holdings.  The huge amount of money in index funds is a wild card. 

 

I have heard something similar happened in 2000-2001.  The US dollar was strong during this period.  Foreign investors and retail kept buying every dip in the Nasdaq even as hedge funds shorted the market and mutual fund managers gradually liquidated their holdings. 

 

The CNN fear and greed index is an objective indicator of sentiment and is currently indicating FEAR, which is moderate pessimism instead of EXTREME FEAR. 



#7 da_cheif

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Posted 29 April 2022 - 03:35 AM

Would like to know what others think........where are we ? close to the bottom or still away ? it is important to form a correct idea and the more the inputs, the best we can get from this site......   

the bottom was in feb



#8 andr99

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Posted 29 April 2022 - 04:06 AM

thank you cheif for your input......whatever is going to happen it's important to hear a different opinion to mine, because my current bearishness might be maybe excessive.....


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#9 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 29 April 2022 - 02:20 PM

We are to the oversold point now, if we get any good news on any front the market will use it as an excuse to rally...    I can't tell whether it will be bottom rally or the 3 or 4 day rally.



#10 pdx5

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Posted 29 April 2022 - 05:17 PM

Watch the canyon.
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