Jump to content



Photo

Bear market


  • Please log in to reply
5 replies to this topic

#1 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,722 posts

Posted 30 April 2022 - 08:12 AM

The 50 has rejected the 200 and turned down, this is not bullish, the last time this happened was after the 2007 top.

MACD Looks ready to break the trend line from 2020 lows, also AMZN will be going back to 2020 lows which says the retail consumer is stopping spending and we are entering a recession. SPX should hit at least 3200 or 3000. I expect a bounce Monday and possible continued rally into Tuesday. After the FOMC meeting, market should start selling again.
The Fed is not interested in protecting stock prices, they will do more talk than actual rate increases to force the market lower and still have the margin to keep raising if inflation doesn't drop.

https://schrts.co/ZuNCxijP

Edited by CLK, 30 April 2022 - 08:19 AM.


#2 pdx5

pdx5

    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 8,469 posts

Posted 30 April 2022 - 03:53 PM

But unemployment rate is near record low, and consumers are buying up stuff at furious pace. New cars have a waiting list to buy.

What is the last time this happened?


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#3 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

  • Admin
  • 21,299 posts

Posted 01 May 2022 - 09:17 AM

There are all sorts of funny lags, and cross currents. When rates are very low, small nominal moves are huge percentage-wise. To the degree the housing market is driving inflation, that's about to stop. For those who need a mortgage to buy, housing got about 2x more expensive than it was a few months ago, or much of 2020. The only rub there is a lot of folks locked in low rates, those are coming off, bit by bit but it's not yet hitting the wall, so to speak.


Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter


#4 Carl

Carl

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 33 posts

Posted 01 May 2022 - 01:23 PM

But unemployment rate is near record low, and consumers are buying up stuff at furious pace. New cars have a waiting list to buy.

What is the last time this happened?

Unemployment is where TRUMP left at the end. Consumer are not buying more then last year, because little is available. Numbers are higher because inflation brought higher.Washer last year was $1000 now is $1300 an you must wait. New cars? When you been last time to a car dealer? The parking lot are empty of new cars only a few. I was at the dealer in august 2021 to service my car .Parking lot empty, so i asked the manager if they where going out of business. He explain there was a chip problem and no cars where been delivered. As of today is the same.

Seriously What is the last time this happened?

Forgive my lousy English and I live in CT



#5 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,722 posts

Posted 02 May 2022 - 05:14 AM

After the 1987 crash, the market recovery rally failed 2 years later and dropped to well below the highs before the crash. About the same setup now and would put SPX around 3k
at the lows. The 50/200 rejection is more bearish, so I don't think the market bottoms and starts going back up until October. This would still remain a secular bull market as the 1987 event was. I don't know of a secular bull market lasting much less than 20 years, so THE top should not be here until around the year 2032.

#6 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,722 posts

Posted 02 May 2022 - 05:31 PM

You are lucky to lose less than 50% your account in a bear market because puts and calls are very expensive.
I regularly 2x my account in bull markets off lows because calls are cheap. Better to not hedge, go small with lots of time at peaks or 100% cash and just wait it out, if you hedge, forget it, theta will get both sides and VIX crush too on rallies.

Edited by CLK, 02 May 2022 - 05:34 PM.