I believe that Junk debt is a bit like a canary in a coal mine, if it flops over, grab the masks and head for the exits. This plot does not lead, but is coincident, but if you're digging coal a mile underground, knowing explosive gas is starting to build is good enough. If the pessimists are right and things are about to go tits up or if the optimists are right and happy days are almost here again, I believe it should become evident in the chart below soon. In my simple way of looking at it, for the optimists to win, the channel should hold and be broken to the upside, and for the pessimists to gain bragging rights, the bottom of the channel should fail prominently. Losing the 200 week moving average in March was not a good omen.