15 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

I believe that Junk debt is a bit like a canary in a coal mine, if it flops over, grab the masks and head for the exits.  This plot does not lead, but is coincident, but if you're digging coal a mile underground, knowing explosive gas is starting to build is good enough.  If the pessimists are right and things are about to go tits up or if the optimists are right and happy days are almost here again, I believe it should become evident in the chart below soon.   In my simple way of looking at it, for the optimists to win, the channel should hold and be broken to the upside, and for the pessimists to gain bragging rights, the bottom of the channel should fail prominently.  Losing the 160 week moving average in April was not a good omen. 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 06 May 2022 - 02:15 AM.

[Douglas]

Sorry for the double post.  Apparently when I tried to edit the original post, the system reposted this updated version.  The edit was done to correct the length noted for the moving average shown to 160 weeks.  For whatever it's worth, I select the length of moving averages that I use based on my Aretha Franklin system, R-E-S-P-E-C-T.  I search for moving average lengths that have respected pivots in the past by providing resistance or support.  I try to use round numbers or Fibonacci numbers like 160 (a round multiple of 1.618) whenever possible. 

 

The 160 week average in the plot above provided support in late 2018 and brief support recently in March so it met my Aretha requirements.

 

The other thing I'm watching which is probably of more interest to me than most of you is the British Pound which has been taking a beating.  The low this morning has been 1.2276 $/£ which makes Blighty a real bargain for you fearless tourist souls who are braving crowded airports and the bug to travel internationally.  If you are looking for a holiday destination, the weather here is turning as nice and warm as the ale. 

 

Regards,

Douglas 

[fib_1618]

Thank you for your posts over the many years you've been here.

 

4 year chart of the Junk Bond advance/decline line is provided below for your further review.

 

Fib

 

[steadyquest]

To insure a massive market rally, I am forecasting a grey Friday, building on Thursday morning's opening gap

[Douglas]

fib_1618, I can't open the link you included to the Junk AD line.  It might be because I'm operating from a UK server, or maybe my firewall is blocking it, don't know.  Could you pretty please post a picture?  Thanks.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[fib_1618]

fib_1618, I can't open the link you included to the Junk AD line.  It might be because I'm operating from a UK server, or maybe my firewall is blocking it, don't know.  Could you pretty please post a picture?  Thanks.

 

Try this: http://www.technical...tjunk042922.png

[steadyquest]

Who's up for a Friday afternoon purge?

 

[Douglas]

fib_1618, thanks heaps, that is one ugly divergence.  One approach would appear to be to jump back in on a break of a fast, steep trend line down the AD fall since the peak.  Given Powell's propensity for pumping (how's that for alliteration), my buy trigger finger is itching, but I'll need some serious motivation given what a mess he and his henchmen have created.  Do let us know if this relationship starts improving.  Thanks again.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[12SPX]

Who's up for a Friday afternoon purge?

 

Another thread, d's to be exact at the bottom I was asking who thought there may be a turnaround and your showing an interesting gap there....

[pdx5]

Problem for Powell is it is  POLITICALLY UNACCEPTABLE to just ignore the inflation at these levels. He is now forced to watch stock market and bond market on the downgrade side of road because the politicians are pressuring him (and the FED) to do something quick before November 6th election.

 

Anecdotal example from this morning: 3 years ago when we bought this brand new construction house, I bought lot of sod in plugs form for $4.99 / tray of a dozen sod plugs. Today I paid $15.99 for the same Saint Augustine grass tray of plugs. I am feeling the inflation for sure LOL. Inflation at Lowe's is palpable across the board of items.

Edited by pdx5, 06 May 2022 - 11:09 AM.