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end of May end of the bearish trend ?


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#1 andr99

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Posted 06 May 2022 - 01:02 PM

I' ve got a long term indicator close to a multi year low


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#2 fib_1618

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Posted 06 May 2022 - 02:00 PM

Not even close to a bottom...maybe sometime after June.

 

Fib


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#3 andr99

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Posted 06 May 2022 - 02:07 PM

Not even close to a bottom...maybe sometime after June.

 

Fib

 

well....very possible. The market tends to be usually slower than my exectations, but however I think that those who apply Elliott to the stock market analysis would call this, wave 4th. So it's not the start of something bigger than that, but just a deep correction in other words, particularly if we look at the nasdaq which is the worst.  


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#4 redfoliage2

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Posted 06 May 2022 - 02:07 PM

To see how close to a bottom let's see what are the big Wall Street players stakes in the stock market:

 

https://www.cnbc.com...st-survey-cnbc/


Edited by redfoliage2, 06 May 2022 - 02:08 PM.


#5 andr99

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Posted 06 May 2022 - 02:24 PM

well I' m going to place my FF.......to me the bottom will be with the nasdaq somewhere between 10500 and 11000


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#6 fib_1618

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Posted 06 May 2022 - 02:46 PM

 

Not even close to a bottom...maybe sometime after June.

 

Fib

 

well....very possible. The market tends to be usually slower than my exectations, but however I think that those who apply Elliott to the stock market analysis would call this, wave 4th. So it's not the start of something bigger than that, but just a deep correction in other words, particularly if we look at the nasdaq which is the worst.  

 

 

If this is a larger degree wave 4 after the multi year run, it could last for years.

 

I find it interesting that you're prompting counts lately since the last time we had this discussion you believed Elliott was a fraud.

 

In any event, it's not as easy as you might think it is...it takes both years of practice and a unique understanding of market psychology,

 

Fib


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#7 andr99

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Posted 06 May 2022 - 03:15 PM

 

 

Not even close to a bottom...maybe sometime after June.

 

Fib

 

well....very possible. The market tends to be usually slower than my exectations, but however I think that those who apply Elliott to the stock market analysis would call this, wave 4th. So it's not the start of something bigger than that, but just a deep correction in other words, particularly if we look at the nasdaq which is the worst.  

 

 

If this is a larger degree wave 4 after the multi year run, it could last for years.

 

I find it interesting that you're prompting counts lately since the last time we had this discussion you believed Elliott was a fraud.

 

In any event, it's not as easy as you might think it is...it takes both years of practice and a unique understanding of market psychology,

 

Fib

 

 

I still don' t believe in Elliott (infact I wrote in Elliott terms......not in my terms), but wave 4th is a good way to make people understand that I' m talking about a correction, nothing more than that. Wave 4th means a correction in an underlying uptrend that will be resumed. And given that I' m lazy and I don' t like to spend many words to explain such a concept.......wave 4th.....and everybody understand what move I' m expecting. The reason why I don' t believe in Elliott is this that follows : first of all I have most often seen a lot more than five waves in real markets and real stocks, secondly even in the case we could accept such a postulate (that waves are 5), Elliott doesn' t give a method to distinguish subwaves from waves of larger degree, so that everyone can count what he wants to. More than a scientific approach it seems to me a religion or a philosophy and I' m not used to take for true what is not proven by reasoning. Theorems are logically demonstrated and not given to be believed for faith      


Edited by andr99, 06 May 2022 - 03:19 PM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#8 fib_1618

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Posted 06 May 2022 - 06:35 PM

 

 

 

Not even close to a bottom...maybe sometime after June.

 

Fib

 

well....very possible. The market tends to be usually slower than my exectations, but however I think that those who apply Elliott to the stock market analysis would call this, wave 4th. So it's not the start of something bigger than that, but just a deep correction in other words, particularly if we look at the nasdaq which is the worst.  

 

 

If this is a larger degree wave 4 after the multi year run, it could last for years.

 

I find it interesting that you're prompting counts lately since the last time we had this discussion you believed Elliott was a fraud.

 

In any event, it's not as easy as you might think it is...it takes both years of practice and a unique understanding of market psychology,

 

Fib

 

 

...but wave 4th is a good way to make people understand that I' m talking about a correction, nothing more than that. Wave 4th means a correction in an underlying uptrend that will be resumed.

 

 

Fair enough....thanks for clarifying.

 

Fib


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

Technical Watch Subscriptions



 


#9 K Wave

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Posted 07 May 2022 - 07:29 AM

A bunch of stuff could not even recover key levels at close on Friday...

 

Still at risk of crash type final wave down as long as these conditions exist.

 

Now if we get a big rally on Monday instead of finally going over that cliff edge, then we could possibly see a decent rebound rally.

 

But I am telling you.... if AAPL MSFT and TSLA all let go simultaneously, it aint gonna be pretty...

 

I am on full blown crash watch as long as Apple under 159, Softie under 280, and Tesla under 900


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#10 K Wave

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Posted 07 May 2022 - 07:52 AM

Crazy how much MSFT daily chart looks nearly identical to Dow chart in spring of 1962...just before the 1962 meltdown got started in earnest after the bull ran outta gas in March of 62 and finally broke through the 200 day

AAPL and TSLA appear to be just behind...

 

Are you really willing to bet big that AAPL MSFT TSLA will not end up like all those that have gone before?? FB NFLX AMZN..etc etc

 

Dow 62

 

62.png

 

MSFT

 

msft.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy