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The Slope of Hope is About to Change


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 02 September 2022 - 08:42 AM

Since March the Fed has reduced its balance sheet by about $20B/month with the slope of that drawdown increasing to roughly  $40B/month since June.  Next week the drawdown is supposed to double yet again to about $80 - 90B/month.  That sounds like a lot doesn't it, but the slope of hope for investors up from the bottom in August 2019 to the peak in March 2022 of the Mont Everest of funny money the Fed created out of thin air blowing this super bubble and the current inflation revival was an unbelievable $167B/month.

 

So the Fed hopes to slay the dragon that it begat with half the ammo it used to birth it and with interest rates at less than half the core rate of inflation.    Good luck with that.  Powell often quotes Volker, but talking the talk is a big distance from walking the walk. In this case that distance is about $80/month and 4% in interest rates.  There is an easy test to see if the Fed action is having its desired effect, check the rates that your friendly neighborhood bank will pay you for short term CD deposits.  When that rate starts rising sharply, the drawdown is starting to bite forcing borrowers to pay up for short term business money.  Until then, it's all talk and no walk.

 

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Regards,

Douglas



#2 MikeyG

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Posted 03 September 2022 - 10:01 AM

While there are similarities to thr 1970's its not the same situation. We had baby boomers getting into the workforce, buying things. When we got the inflation under control it led to an economic boom in 80s and 90s. Today, we are in the cusp of a declining population, I suspect there are only a certain amount of bubbles left to be created and without genuine population growth in the very long term SPX will look like the Nikkei. This will cause the buy and hold investors and the consensus that you always make money in the run very confused and unsure. I am not sure how many bubbles and inflationary recessions are remaining but maybe a couple more unless population starts growing again.