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Denial is Not Just a River in Egypt


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 03:08 AM

Lately when my curiosity overwhelms my better judgement and I turn up the volume while watching the ticker at the bottom of the screen on CNBC, all I hear is denial of what I see as obvious facts.

 

I suppose when peoples' very financial existence entirely depends on them ignoring some uncomfortable fact staring them right in the face, they will ignore that fact as a matter of survival.  So it is on CNBC with the real inflation rate and the debt problem, and I guess it will stay that way until the US dollar is knocked from its throne as the reserve currency.  At that point the rest of the world will no longer let the US get away with their self-serving selective blindness. 

 

The problem with finding another reserve currency is that as bad as the US dollar is, economies underlying every other major currency are worse, think Japan with the Yen with unbelievable levels of debt which can't possibly be serviced if rates rise much above zero, think soon to freeze over rock solid Europe with its Euro which is only functioning due to massive printing and near zero rates, think China with its Yuan where the economy is a giant Ponzi real estate scheme which will come crashing down if they don't continuously mint new suckers to buy.  The dollar is simply the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry which we are forced to wear yet again for another day.

 

One possible stop gap solution might be a multi-metal & materials backed up hard currency.  Russia is currently trying to pull off a limited form of this with the Ruble by requiring oil and gas purchases to be made only in Rubles.  If they are cut off from Swift system for much longer, they will probably expand this requirement to other materials sourced there which the world cannot do without such as nickel and titanium making the Ruble the first hard asset backed major currency in a while.  The Ruble is not a reasonable solution since it has too small of a float, and Russia has manged to isolate itself from the financial structure of most of the western world since it's currently lead by an international pariah. 

 

In the very long run the only solution that I can see to control governments' tendency to inflate their currencies into worthlessness is a currency based on block chain technology with carefully limited supply such as Bitcoin but designed to avoid the massive energy consumption required to mine coins.  I just don't think most of the world's population is quite technologically savvy enough yet to accept one's and zero's only in their wallets, maybe someday, but long after I'm reduced to pushing up daisies, or ashes, depending on whether my widow will want to spring for the price of a burial plot.  I've told her that I don't mind one way or the other.  My only funeral requests are that she not wear a red dress and that she doesn't bring a date to the service.

 

Regards,

Douglas 


Edited by Douglas, 18 September 2022 - 03:14 AM.


#2 linrom1

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 09:49 AM

Thanks for posting your thoughts on the subject of the DOLLAR. The Dollar is a POS that is sucking up all the available global credit just to function as a medium of exchange as a reserve currency before it simply blows up--why? It can't support all the dollar denominated debt. It's irrelevant that there is no alternative substitute for global reserve currency that can replace the Dollar.

 

Below is chart of USDJPY. Which one lost more value?

 


Edited by linrom1, 18 September 2022 - 09:56 AM.


#3 Douglas

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Posted 18 September 2022 - 03:11 PM

The Fearless Forecast buried a bit too deep in my rather wordy note is that I believe, despite the recent setback, that block chain currency long term is the real deal.  I just am not so sure that energy intensive Bitcoin is the answer to the fiat currency question.  Maybe the way to play it is not though some currency that may or may not make it, but through platforms that enable other block chain transactions like the currency wallet Ethereum.  This bear market, if it gets deep enough, may provide a low-price entry for investors with the luxury of having a very long-term investment horizon.  As my mortality humor at the end of my note above alluded to, that may be just a little too distant in the future for an old fart like me. 

 

Regards,

Douglas 



#4 pdx5

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Posted 19 September 2022 - 03:25 AM

Crypto is a Ponzi scheme.
Coinbase adds 2% each day to your account 😂😂😂
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#5 Douglas

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Posted 19 September 2022 - 10:56 AM

pdx5, I readily admit that much of the current crypto space is filled with junk, some blatantly so.  It's not the current crop of digital funny money that interests me, it's the promise of the technology behind it.  Fiat money is already a gradually made worthless bad joke, wrapped in the enigma of being simultaneously worthless and yet valuable and is printed at will by an out-of-control central bank/treasury amalgamation. 

 

Fiat is also already 1's and 0's moving between financial institutions, not even green inked paper, so the first step to digitalization has already been taken.  The next step gets the banks out of the loop which they will probably fight tooth and nail.  The key is developing a crypto whose value is fixed and cannot be manipulated the way fiat's currently is.  This promise has to be better than the current reality of fiat, the first silver certificate dollar of which I earned is now only worth one twentieth of what it was when I earned it, a 95% loss and still falling

 

Regards,

Douglas



#6 steadyquest

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Posted 19 September 2022 - 12:32 PM

But... but... but... without his printing press how would brandon buy the next $15,800,000,000 worth of our defense weapons to send to his nazi pals in eastern europe?

 

https://media.defens...– SEP. 15.PDF 



#7 Douglas

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Posted 19 September 2022 - 02:16 PM

steadyquest, if you're looking to assign blame, you need to go to the source, Dick Nixon, who took the US off the gold standard and released the Kraken that is still devouring the dollar, and, of course, the maestro himself, Alan Greenspan, who used turbo-charged money printing market manipulation to bandage-up the 87 crash that his successors have continued to use to this day.  Those two should be sitting at the head of any dollar debasement, stock market bubble blame list. 

 

Regards,

Douglas



#8 pdx5

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Posted 21 September 2022 - 07:33 AM

Douglas, your idea of "The key is developing a crypto whose value is fixed and cannot be manipulated the way fiat's currently is."
Is great except who will be the party to guarantee it?
Governments can not be trusted based on history, and so who will be this god like creature we can put our faith in to not debase the crypto currency?
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule