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AAII 60.9% Bears


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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    Mark S. Young

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 11:55 AM

Check it out.

https://schrts.co/CJqPpTBK


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#2 pdx5

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 12:11 PM

It should be 99%. This bear market has been more obvious than any others in my 60 years trading stocks,

as soon as the inflation numbers became known. I have never seen a bull market with 8% inflation.


Edited by pdx5, 22 September 2022 - 12:15 PM.

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#3 beta

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Posted 22 September 2022 - 01:23 PM

and they’ve been right for the past 600 points.  laugh.png

 

bullz have forgotten what a two way market looks like. 


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#4 andr99

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 07:00 AM

the model has two variables, not just one. The first variable is inflation, the second one is time i.e. for how long inflation remains at 8%. If it stays there for a minimal amount of time it will be unable to make important damages to the economic growth. If it is transitory the stock market might have already priced in the whole consequences and might be headed higher. In any case with 60% bears around, at least a short squeeze is due.  


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#5 andr99

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 10:18 AM

by the way there are three gaps to fill for the spx which lately fills every gap it makes and the last one to close is slightly below the august high


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#6 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 03:05 PM

Nothing happening yet BUT, AAII hasn't been this Beared up since the 2009 low.

I'm not thinking we are near the ultimate low, but a low of some sort is possible if we can get a speck of good news.


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#7 pdx5

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 04:29 PM

Edit

Edited by pdx5, 23 September 2022 - 04:31 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#8 pdx5

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Posted 23 September 2022 - 04:30 PM

Mark, there is no good news possible until November elections are over. Inflation is not going to drop suddenly. Never dropped in 1970's for many years.
Russia just called up reservists. War will escalate if anything. FED has no choice except keep raising rates. Ok so FED may switch to 1/2 % instead of 3/4 %. That is not good news because interest rates will be higher by 1/2%, not stay same.

Edited by pdx5, 23 September 2022 - 04:33 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule