60 replies to this topic

[skott]

First the US$ may be making a low. It tested last year's June low and has bounced significantly. Once again, there is record extreme Short the Euro. When the Euro declines it means risk is in OFF mode

 

VIX is so low, it's about the same price when the market was at all time highs, The top that is. How odd that number should be so low here. Usually bottoms are made on high VIX numbers

 

The US treasury yield curve is inverted. Every time this has happened going back to the 1960's we experienced a major stock market decline.

 

Retail Market orders as a % of market volume at extreme. The little guy is buying in like crazy. Is it early or late?

 

The total call volume for February 2, 2023 set a new all-time record

 

 

 

“They are encouraged by the recent rebound in small-cap meme stocks and cryptoassets which crashed last year,” Peng Cheng, a JPMorgan strategist, said in an interview. “Trading volume is overall lower and that also may have exaggerated retail market share.” 

 

Finally two very accurate traders in the wrong way, i,e, the perfect contrary market callers said the sky is the limit and it's up, up and away. Their timing is usually pretty good but sometimes they are right for awhile

Edited by skott, 03 February 2023 - 11:53 AM.

[skott]

CNN Fear/Greed index is in extreme territory at 80

[12SPX]

First the US$ may be making a low. It tested last year's June low and has bounced significantly. Once again, there is record extreme Short the Euro. When the Euro declines it means risk is in OFF mode

 

VIX is so low, it's about the same price when the market was at all time highs, The top that is. How odd that number should be so low here. Usually bottoms are made on high VIX numbers

 

The US treasury yield curve is inverted. Every time this has happened going back to the 1960's we experienced a major stock market decline.

 

Retail Market orders as a % of market volume at extreme. The little guy is buying in like crazy. Is it early or late?

 

The total call volume for February 2, 2023 set a new all-time record

 

 

 

“They are encouraged by the recent rebound in small-cap meme stocks and cryptoassets which crashed last year,” Peng Cheng, a JPMorgan strategist, said in an interview. “Trading volume is overall lower and that also may have exaggerated retail market share.” 

 

Finally two very accurate traders in the wrong way, i,e, the perfect contrary market callers said the sky is the limit and it's up, up and away. They timing is usually pretty good but sometimes they are right for awhile

Wow that is where bullishness is really put to the test!!  It's easy to say your bullish or bearish but actual money says it all.  As I've been noting call prices are way to high at the moment!! 

[skott]

Alot of indicators like the above and techincal indicators, for what they are worth, like RSI are saying pullback at least. and that maybe all that happens. I would think a Naz100 pullback to somewhere near 12,100 is plausible and then a move higher to 13,800. The alternative is go down and keep going down. I do firmly believe the SPX will be below 3000 during the first half of this year.

[blustar]

Alot of indicators like the above and techincal indicators, for what they are worth, like RSI are saying pullback at least. and that maybe all that happens. I would think a Naz100 pullback to somewhere near 12,100 is plausible and then a move higher to 13,800. The alternative is go down and keep going down. I do firmly believe the SPX will be below 3000 during the first half of this year.

Yes between 2400/2500 by April 1

[skott]

Well Blu, you've made alot of predictions

[blustar]

 

Alot of indicators like the above and techincal indicators, for what they are worth, like RSI are saying pullback at least. and that maybe all that happens. I would think a Naz100 pullback to somewhere near 12,100 is plausible and then a move higher to 13,800. The alternative is go down and keep going down. I do firmly believe the SPX will be below 3000 during the first half of this year.

Yes between 2400/2500 by April 1

 

I meant April 11

[pdx5]

Well Blu, you've made alot of predictions

Yes!! And most predictions were way off! Especially the imminent crash calls.

However 1st Amendment rules on this forum owned by Mark and fearless forecasters are Free to post forecasts.

The only thing which is keeping me in the soft landing camp in 2023 is that companies are having hard time finding workers. That is different precursor than previous recessions since WWII.

Edited by pdx5, 03 February 2023 - 12:34 PM.

[skott]

The semi's seem to be leading the way down. SMH is way overbought and unfortunately I overweighted that position. Should have kept it at my original level.

Semi's often lead the market. SMH is 250. It was 165 just a few months ago. 

[skott]

Gold really dropped which often happens on a good jobs report. Miners getting crushed.