According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Tuesday February 14th and Friday the 17th.
This coming Tuesday's risk window coincides with the release of the latest estimated (a.k.a. massaged) CPI figures which might be a driver for a turn that day. The current forecast is for the numbers to drop slightly. A big drop or a nasty Valentine surprise increase would probably do the trick. The Friday window might be just be risk getting an early jump on the turns often associated with the new moon which shows up the following Monday.
Last week I posited that the DJIA might form a "W" or "M" shape during the week's trading due to the three Monday, Wednesday and Friday risk windows. The hourly DJIA plot below did indeed form a pretty good looking "W".
The DJIA daily closing price has formed a triangle with a focus somewhere in the vicinity of April Fool's Day which seems appropriate I suppose. Foolish me expects a turn about then.
A little closer to home, several pretty reliable weekly cycles that I track are scheduled to turn somewhere between the week of 27 February and the week of 13 March, so that window bears watching too.
Regards,
Douglas
