12 replies to this topic

[linrom1]

 

The common wisdom advanced by many political economy strategists is that US has the "cleanest laundry " in the world. Individuals like Martin Armstrong popularized the misguided fiction that US Dollar will be last man standing. I disagree, I don't think US will ever get its finances in order, and in fact, it the least likely country to do so in the world.

 

CBO just published its 10-year forecast for US deficits, predicting that US Government will run annual deficits of $2trillion dollars for the next decade. Ok, but CBO does not factor even recessions?

Edited by linrom1, 23 February 2023 - 12:32 PM.

[skott]

Here is what you may not understand. First of all look at 3 year chart. It's in a strong bull market. Money is borrowed mostly in US dollars, they take that and convert it into other currencies to make trades, buy stuff, whatever. When things turn down and there is a rush to call in debts or for people to get their finances in order they have to repay those loans. So they need US dollars to pay back, causing demand for it.  I agree our finances are a sham but in a downtrend of markets and economies, it may work one more time. If the US is seen as not dominating the world any more, and it looks like that to me, then the dollar will be toast one day. It will all probably happen very fast one day and there will be little chance of us recovering from it

[linrom1]

Here is what you may not understand. First of all look at 3 year chart. It's in a strong bull market. Money is borrowed mostly in US dollars, they take that and convert it into other currencies to make trades, buy stuff, whatever. When things turn down and there is a rush to call in debts or for people to get their finances in order they have to repay those loans. So they need US dollars to pay back, causing demand for it.  I agree our finances are a sham but in a downtrend of markets and economies, it may work one more time. If the US is seen as not dominating the world any more, and it looks like that to me, then the dollar will be toast one day. It will all probably happen very fast one day and there will be little chance of us recovering from it

Yes, I understand: it's called Dollar Milkshake Theory." It's junk analysis popularized by Santiago Capital. The main thesis of this theory stands logic on its head and claims that the Dollar gets stronger the more debt is issued.

Edited by linrom1, 23 February 2023 - 03:19 PM.

[skott]

 

Here is what you may not understand. First of all look at 3 year chart. It's in a strong bull market. Money is borrowed mostly in US dollars, they take that and convert it into other currencies to make trades, buy stuff, whatever. When things turn down and there is a rush to call in debts or for people to get their finances in order they have to repay those loans. So they need US dollars to pay back, causing demand for it.  I agree our finances are a sham but in a downtrend of markets and economies, it may work one more time. If the US is seen as not dominating the world any more, and it looks like that to me, then the dollar will be toast one day. It will all probably happen very fast one day and there will be little chance of us recovering from it

Yes, I understand: it's called Dollar Milkshake Theory." It's junk analysis popularized by Santiago Capital. The main thesis of this theory stands logic on its head and claims that the Dollar gets stronger the more debt is issued.

 

 

 

It happens over and over during a bear market. Look at the last couple years. see what it did in 2022

[linrom1]

Most likely to 106, but 108 is also in play.

[linrom1]

DXY took off on some news?

[Russ]

 

The common wisdom advanced by many political economy strategists is that US has the "cleanest laundry " in the world. Individuals like Martin Armstrong popularized the misguided fiction that US Dollar will be last man standing. I disagree, I don't think US will ever get its finances in order, and in fact, it the least likely country to do so in the world.

 

CBO just published its 10-year forecast for US deficits, predicting that US Government will run annual deficits of $2trillion dollars for the next decade. Ok, but CBO does not factor even recessions?

Armstrong does not think the US will get their its finances in order, he has said at least since the early 1990's that the US will never pay down it's debt and it will eventually crash and burn which he now says will start in 2028, the crash and burn which will lead to the breakup of the US into 3 or 4 countries around his major pi cycle date of 2032.95.  What he said is that the US is the core economy of the world and core economies historically go down last, just like the body where the peripheral areas ( hands and feet) die first, so too the smaller economies go down first, like Sri Lanka,  Ghana and others which are already in trouble. He says Europe will start defaulting on their debts this year. 

Edited by Russ, 07 March 2023 - 11:08 AM.

[linrom1]

Could start to implode here below 104.

[linrom1]

It's getting kind of risky, it's too easy?

[linrom1]

Luke Gromen

 

@LukeGromen

·

Apr 18

 

Dollar's Dominance Eroded at 10 Times the Pace Seen in Past 2 Decades “strategists Joana Freire and Stephen Jen calculated that the greenback accounted for about two-thirds of total global reserves in 2003, then 55% by 2021, and 47% last year.”

Edited by linrom1, 23 April 2023 - 07:06 PM.