I didn't find the time to publish the weekly risk windows this past weekend, but today and Monday were the two risk windows for this week. Monday's low only held for 24 hours, so it was a dud. Today's low looks better with a nice hammer candle stick appearing to form (as I type there's about a half hour left to trade).
A crash risk window opens tomorrow March 16th and closes next Wednesday the 22nd. Given that J. Powell blinked and bailed out uninsured depositors at SVB, he may have short circuited this dangerous window, maybe. For it to play out, another shoe will need to drop. If the Fed goes full Arthur Burns at the meeting next week and pauses rate hikes or even cuts rates, then that will certainly slam closed the risk window.
The reversal today was in the neighborhood required to complete the "b" wave down in my Elliott wave count, but something is rotten with the structure of the "c" wave in this "b" wave. Maybe it has more work to do. The next couple of days should clear things up. More on this later.